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6/7 above trend · dollar flat · CPI in 3d · 10y 4.77%

2026-09-08 · run on demand

00in one line
on record · not yet narrated
6/7 above trend · dollar flat · CPI in 3d · 10y 4.77%158 sourced events

never a position, never advice — a lean with a probability, resolved on its date

2026-09-08 · /timeline/2026-09-08

01:22 utc · run on demand — written once so far today

how to read this — twelve words the day leans on
2s10s
the ten-year yield minus the two-year. Above zero the curve slopes up, its usual shape; below zero it is inverted, which has come before most recessions.
term premium
the extra yield a lender asks for holding a long bond instead of rolling short ones. It rises when the far future looks less certain.
carry trade
borrowing where money is cheap to lend where it pays more. It unwinds fast when the cheap side gets dearer.
the 200-day
the average close of the last two hundred trading days. Above it the trend is up by that measure; below it, down.
Brier
how far a probability sat from what happened, squared: 0 is perfect, .25 is a coin toss. Lower is better.
credible interval
the range the true hit rate most likely sits in, given how few times it has been tried. Wide means little is known yet.
p
the probability the desk puts on its own lean, from .50 (a coin) to 1.00 (certain). It is scored later, not asserted.
backed / refuted / thin
what history said about a claim: backed when the past mostly went that way, refuted when it mostly did not, thin when there is too little to say.
the lean
the one direction the day settles on, with a probability, and the date it is judged on. A read of the tape, not a position.
the trigger
the one close, or dated print, that would turn the lean over. Named in advance so it can be scored like any other call.
revision
a later look at the same day. It adds below or edits one passage; the earlier words stay one fold down.
the thread
where yesterday's lean stands today, in the desk's own words: held, hardened, or turned.

what changed

what landed — 98 sourced events, with the numbers
  • bbc news

    Trump threatens to stop sale of Canadian Bombardier jets in US

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    Westpac Consumer Sentiment

    previous 6.0%surprise
  • the dollar news

    AUD/USD Breakout Builds as Yen Strength Softens the Dollar

    surprise
all 9895 more
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Bank Lending y/y

    forecast 5.5%previous 5.4%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Current Account

    forecast 2.48Tprevious 1.40Tsurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Final GDP Price Index y/y

    forecast 2.6%previous 2.6%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Final GDP q/q

    forecast 0.4%previous 0.3%surprise
  • boj statement

    Principal Figures of Financial Institutions (Aug.)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Average Cash Earnings y/y

    forecast 3.8%previous 3.4%surprise
  • cnbc finance news

    China says it will pump $54 billion into banks and insurers — but their stocks still fell

    surprise
  • marketwatch news

    A $2,000 iPhone is coming soon as Apple aims for high-end buyers

    surprise
  • bbc news

    'I performed on stage to get my first job' - the firms turning recruitment into competitions

    surprise
  • bbc news

    AI cancer cures slowed by chip shortage, says UK's biggest tech boss

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

    forecast 1.2%previous 1.0%surprise
  • coindesk news

    Metaplanet CEO breaks silence but shareholders say the hard questions remain unanswered

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseNZD

    Manufacturing Sales q/q

    previous 2.8%surprise
  • marketwatch news

    Oil prices climb, Dow futures sink on reports of Saudi Aramco refinery being hit

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Here’s what happened in crypto today

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    UK financial watchdog weighs lifting prediction markets ban: Report

    surprise
  • the dollar news

    USD/JPY Analysis: Japan's Interventions Continue to Support Yen Strength

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Ethereum Foundation names 2 ‘must ship’ EIPs for Hegotá upgrade

    surprise
  • marketwatch news

    Chip stock investors beware: These charts could warn of further weakness ahead

    surprise
  • carry trade news

    Bitcoin Defends $79,000 as Yen Jumps 3.7%, Diverging From 2024 Carry-Trade Unwind

    surprise
  • the dollar news

    Mexican peso hits strongest level since May 2024 as ‘super peso’ returns

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Joe Biden’s son to launch memecoin, will send to TRUMP holders: WSJ

    surprise
  • carry trade news

    Global forex shifts: Yen carry trade unwinds amid policy divergence.

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Polish prosecutors charge suspect in Zondacrypto probe, seek pretrial detention

    surprise
  • bbc news

    Investigators begin work on why cargo plane overran Miami runway

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Bitcoin fund flows show investors trading Fed rate path, not exiting market: CoinShares

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Capital B adds 376 Bitcoin in $29M purchase, boosting holdings to 3,521 BTC

    surprise
  • bbc news

    Next wins key appeal to overturn £30m equal pay ruling

    surprise
  • bbc news

    Chancellor calls for 'confidence about Britain' despite 'historic high' borrowing costs

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Bitcoin chips away at weekend upside as $80K hangs in the balance

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    Hunter Biden debuts 'LAPTOP' memecoin targeting TRUMP holders

    surprise
  • bbc news

    Faisal Islam: Chancellor's attempts to boost vibes may limit tax rises

    surprise
  • oil supply news

    Venezuela OPEC Exit 'Structurally Likely'

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    Polish prosecutors charge fifth suspect in a massive crypto probe

    surprise
  • bbc news

    Jaguar Land Rover to cut 4,000 jobs over next two years

    surprise
  • bbc news

    Why the 'Temu Range Rover' is such a threat to Jaguar Land Rover

    surprise
  • central banks news

    Gold Price Reacts in Advance to September Interest Rate Hike; Short-term Bearish Factors Unlikely to Break Long-term Logic

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    Stablecoin wallets challenge traditional bank accounts as main consumer money hub

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    Ethereum commits to letting users pay gas fees without having to hold ETH

    surprise
  • the long end news

    Bond sell-off: Why government bond yields soared and why it matters

    surprise
  • the long end news

    Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year Nears 7% as Treasury Yields Climb

    surprise
  • central banks news

    CPI, Fed comments, Middle East tensions... Why do stock prices move? How to interpret market news by connecting the dots through "interest rate outlooks"!

    surprise
  • carry trade news

    India Isn’t Japan: Why the Yen Carry Trade Analogy Could Mislead Indian Investors

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Zcash hits highest price since 2016 as market cap tops $20B

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Yen intervention meets US inflation data: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    Solana to triple transaction size as apps get room for more complex trades

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCAD

    Bank Holiday

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Bank Holiday

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Final Employment Change q/q

    forecast 0.1%previous 0.1%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Revised GDP q/q

    forecast 0.4%previous 0.4%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Sentix Investor Confidence

    forecast 2.1previous 0.9surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    Foreign Currency Reserves

    previous 768Bsurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    Unemployment Rate

    forecast 3.1%previous 3.1%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Industrial Production m/m

    forecast 0.1%previous 0.2%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Lloyds HPI m/m

    forecast 0.2%previous 0.0%surprise
  • boj statement

    Amounts Outstanding in the Call Money Market (Aug.)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Leading Indicators

    forecast 117.9%previous 116.4%surprise
  • boj statement

    Consumption Activity Index

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    ANZ Job Advertisements m/m

    previous 0.8%surprise
  • boj statement

    Bank of Japan's Transactions with the Government (Aug.)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Market Operations by the Bank of Japan (Aug.)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Monetary Base and the Bank of Japan's Transactions (Aug.)

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement actions with United Texas Bank, Quontic Bank Acquisition Corp., and Quontic Bank Holdings Corp.

    surprise
  • bls statement

    Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Philip R. Lane: Diversity at the European Central Bank

    surprise
  • boe statement

    The institutional form of independent central banks: from history to contemporary challenges - speech by Andrew Bailey

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Financial Results of Japan's Banks for Fiscal 2025

    surprise
  • boe statement

    Homophones – Remarks by Huw Pill

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Notice of the "Meeting on Market Operations"

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances (Projections for Sept.)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Collateral Accepted by the Bank of Japan (End of Aug.)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Bank of Japan Accounts (August 31)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Monetary Base (Aug.)

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Boris Vujčić: Listening to households: expectations, behaviour and monetary policy

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Barr, Unlocking Opportunities for Workers and Entrepreneurs with a Criminal Record

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Bond Market Survey (August 2026)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances and Market Operations (Aug.)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Quarterly Schedule of Outright Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (Competitive Auction Method) (July-September 2026) (Schedule Updates)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Payment and Settlement Statistics (July)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Flow of Funds (Overview of Japan, US, and the Euro area)(1st Quarter 2026)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Average Contract Interest Rates on Loans and Discounts (July)

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Isabel Schnabel: Central banks on-chain

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Warsh, In Our Time

    surprise
  • boj statement

    (BOJ Review) Expanding and Revising the Application of Hedonic Quality Adjustment in the Corporate Goods Price Index

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico

    surprise
  • boe statement

    Delay to the November 2026 RTGS standards release

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Meeting of 22-23 July 2026

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Piero Cipollone: From vision to delivery: building Europe’s tokenised financial market

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on July 20 and July 29, 2026

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Piero Cipollone: Interview with ilsussidiario.net

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc. and announces termination of enforcement action with Deutsche Bank AG, DB USA Corporation, and Deutsche Bank AG New Yor

    surprise
on record · not yet narrated

this day is on record. the events above were sourced and the regime read was computed from our own closes — that is the day's narrative, and it is true whether or not anything was written about it. the narration did not land that day, so there is no thesis, no antithesis and no call here, and nothing was invented to fill the space.

what could not be reached that day:

  • the model's door refused the key it was given, so the read was never asked — the day is on record, not narrated
  • surprise σ is unavailable until our own calendar history exists
  • Fed and BOJ odds: no free source — only what the operator pastes, marked as a claim

what to watch

nothing was written about what is coming — this day is on record and not yet narrated. these are the dated things the calendar reached, in the order they arrive.

Fed and BOJ odds: no free source — only what the operator pastes, marked as a claim

  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    NAB Business Confidence

    previous -6no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    Trade Balance

    forecast 805Bprevious 767Bno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    USD-Denominated Trade Balance

    forecast 118.6Bprevious 112.5Bno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Economy Watchers Sentiment

    forecast 46.3previous 45.7no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Trade Balance

    forecast 16.0Bprevious 15.4Bno result yet
all 6054 more
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    French Trade Balance

    forecast -6.0Bprevious -5.8Bno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    NFIB Small Business Index

    forecast 99.4previous 99.8no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Monetary Policy Report Hearings

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Consumer Credit m/m

    forecast 11.9Bprevious 14.2Bno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    M2 Money Stock y/y

    forecast 2.2%previous 2.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    CPI y/y

    forecast 0.8%previous 0.5%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    PPI y/y

    forecast 3.6%previous 3.5%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y

    previous 50.4%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    French Industrial Production m/m

    forecast 0.2%previous 0.1%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German 10-y Bond Auction

    previous 3.26|1.1no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    ADP Weekly Employment Change

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    ECB President Lagarde Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Buba President Nagel Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    10-y Bond Auction

    previous 4.68|2.5no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    RICS House Price Balance

    forecast -30%previous -30%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    MI Inflation Expectations

    previous 4.9%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Final CPI m/m

    forecast 0.2%previous 0.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Industrial Production m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous -1.0%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactEUR

    Main Refinancing Rate

    forecast 2.65%previous 2.40%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactEUR

    Monetary Policy Statement

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Core PPI m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous 0.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    PPI m/m

    forecast 0.4%previous 0.0%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Unemployment Claims

    forecast 205Kprevious 206Kno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactEUR

    ECB Press Conference

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Existing Home Sales

    forecast 3.98Mprevious 4.06Mno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Final Wholesale Inventories m/m

    forecast 1.2%previous 1.3%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Natural Gas Storage

    previous 30Bno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Crude Oil Inventories

    previous -4.5Mno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    30-y Bond Auction

    previous 5.22|2.4no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseNZD

    BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index

    previous 54.3no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    BSI Manufacturing Index

    forecast 2.5previous -1.8no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    PPI y/y

    forecast 7.4%previous 7.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Construction Output m/m

    forecast 0.1%previous -0.1%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactGBP

    GDP m/m

    forecast 0.0%previous 0.3%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Goods Trade Balance

    forecast -22.6Bprevious -23.0Bno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Index of Services 3m/3m

    forecast 0.5%previous 0.5%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Industrial Production m/m

    forecast -0.2%previous -0.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Manufacturing Production m/m

    forecast 0.2%previous -0.5%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    SECO Consumer Climate

    forecast -33previous -35no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate

    forecast 5.4%previous 5.3%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Consumer Inflation Expectations

    previous 4.0%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Core CPI m/m

    forecast 0.2%previous 0.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Core CPI y/y

    forecast 2.4%previous 2.5%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    CPI m/m

    forecast 0.4%previous 0.1%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    CPI y/y

    forecast 3.4%previous 3.4%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    ECB President Lagarde Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

    forecast 51.0previous 51.0no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

    previous 4.3%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Federal Budget Balance

    forecast -221.1Bprevious -432.3Bno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    ECB President Lagarde Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseAll

    BRICS Summit

    no result yet

the thread and the ledger

the scorecard · every call resolved in publicupdated 2026-09-08 01:22 utc
spx · 1d
0%
n 3 · ci 1–53%
nasdaq · 1d
67%
n 3 · ci 25–90%
btc · 1d
33%
n 6 · ci 13–66%
dxy · 1d
67%
n 6 · ci 34–87%
us10y · 1d
0%
n 3 · ci 1–53%
gold · 1d
0%
n 6 · ci 1–35%
oil · 1d
67%
n 6 · ci 34–87%
eth · 1d
25%
n 4 · ci 8–66%
eurusd · 1d
100%
n 2 · ci 37–98%
jpy · 1d
0%
n 2 · ci 2–63%
overall37% of 41ci 26–50%brier .29

up and down count only beyond ±0.25% (1d) · ±0.75% (1w) · ±1.5% (1m); inside is flat

assethorizonnhitshit rate
spx1d300%
nasdaq1d3267%
btc1d6233%
dxy1d6467%
us10y1d300%
gold1d600%
oil1d6467%
eth1d4125%
eurusd1d22100%
jpy1d200%