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how the read evolved · 6 versions · 2026-08-122026-08-19
REPORT · US10Y v6
PAKUP·AI
LIVING REPORT · REPORT NO. 6
v6 · 2026-08-19
CURRENT

US 10Y Treasury yield 4.65% -1.27%

rate · data as of 2026-08-19 · computed, sourced, never predicted
live intraday view · chart by TradingView · the document below is computed from end-of-day data
00Executive summary

US 10Y Treasury yield closed at 4.65% (-1.27% on the day). Over the last month it is +0.43%, over the last year +7.39%. It sits 2.11% below the 52-week high of 4.75% (52-week low 3.97%).

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

latest change — 4.71% → 4.65% (-1.27% since v5)2 invalidation conditions stated — section 07
01What changed — v6 vs v5
  • · 4.71% → 4.65% (-1.27% since v5)
  • · volatility regime quiet → normal (31th pct)
02Technicals

US 10Y Treasury yield closed at 4.65% (-1.27% on the day). Over the last month it is +0.43%, over the last year +7.39%. It sits 2.11% below the 52-week high of 4.75% (52-week low 3.97%).

Trend: price is ABOVE the 200-day average (4.33%) and above the 50-day (4.58%) — trend strength (R², 90d) 0.71, direction sideways.

Volatility: 30-day realized vol is 14.57% annualized, the 31th percentile of this asset's own history — a normal tape. Short-horizon behavior leans mean reverting.

Structure (90 days): range 4.26% – 4.75%; the most-touched level is 4.47% (30 touches).

1W
-0.64%
1M
+0.43%
1Y
+7.39%
FROM 52W HIGH
-2.11%
03Risk

Risk: the deepest drawdown of the last year was 8.53% (2025-08-18 → 2025-10-22); price now sits 2.11% below the trailing-year peak. Worst single session: -2.2% (2026-06-11).

MAX DD 1Y
-8.53%
FROM 1Y PEAK
-2.11%
BEST DAY
+3.29%
WORST DAY
-2.2%
04Sentiment

The tape leans neutral: 47% of the last 90 sessions closed up, direction sideways, short-horizon behavior mean reverting.

Positioning: 1.09 standard deviations above the 90-day mean, 2.92% from the all-time high of this series.

computed from price action, not from opinions or positioning surveys

05Consensus read

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

The 1-month move (+0.43%) agrees with the 1-year trend (+7.39%).

Trading within 2.11% of the 52-week high — priced near its best.

analyst-rating feeds are licensed; this section reads the market's own positioning instead

06In the air — headlines, not causes
07What would change this read
  • · The trend read flips on a daily close below the 200-day average at 4.33%.
  • · The volatility read changes if realized vol leaves its current regime (now the 31th percentile).
  • · nothing here is a prediction or advice — it is a computed description of end-of-day data
4.65%-1.27%CONSTRUCTIVE