- 11:13 utc · run on demand — the day's first word
- 11:24 utc · run on demand — ECB consumer expectations survey from August 21 printed, too stale to move the 4.77% yield
- 11:37 utc · run on demand — Mexican peso strength noted; treasury yield narrative unchanged.
- 15:15 utc · run on demand — Treasury debt buyback claims landed at 15:15 — $34 billion in September, program doubling September 9. OPEC+ held output unchanged for October.
- 16:44 utc · run on demand — OPEC+ ties output hold to resumed US-Iran strikes; MarketWatch questions US safe-haven status as central banks pull gold
- 16:49 utc · run on demand — No new events after 16:44 UTC change the day's reading.
what a later look set aside — 1 passage
- rewritten
The next real test is the ECB rate decision on September 10, followed by U.S. CPI on September 11. A core CPI y/y above 2.4% would push yields toward 5%; a miss below 2.4% would dump them back below 4.75%. A close under 4.75% would break the month-long up trend.
The US 10-year yield stands at 4.77%, having slipped 0.42% on Wednesday but up 2.14% on the week. A new warning that yields could break 5% landed today, putting the bond market on edge. The 30-year now yields more than PepsiCo stock.
5/7 above trend · dollar falling · CPI in 5d · 10y 4.77%
conditions, computed from our own closes — never a forecast · the macro front, every instrument → · the read →
what landed — 99 sourced events, with the numbers
- bbc ↗news
Minister to meet Jaguar Land Rover boss as thousands of job cuts expected
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Ukrainian police took down a crypto scam that stole up to $1 million a month
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Is U.S. losing its safe-haven status? Why global central banks are pulling gold.
surprise— - operator pastepaste-claim
=> $34 BILLION+ in debt buybacks scheduled for September alone. => $14.5 BILLION capacity launching next week. => Program doubles in size on September 9.
surprise— - operator pastepaste-claim
Position accordingly before the market realizes whats happening. $BTC
surprise— - operator pastepaste-claim
The last time this buyback program expanded ? Bitcoin pumped 22% in a single week.
surprise— - operator pastepaste-claim
Whale Factor @WhaleFactor 🐋 WHALE WATCH : The US Treasury is quietly preparing one of the biggest liquidity injections of the year.
surprise— - operator pastepaste-claim
With 30 year yields sitting near 20 year highs and annual interest payments topping $1 TRILLION the government has no choice. Treasury Secretary Bessent claims its just for liquidity not controlling yields but the math doesnt lie.
surprise—
all 99 — 91 more
- coindesk ↗news
Better and Coinbase’s bitcoin-backed mortgages can reuse borrowers’ collateral
surprise— - oil supply ↗news
OPEC Plus Holds Oil Production Steady as U.S.-Iran Strikes Resume
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Here’s what happened in crypto today
surprise— - cnbc finance ↗news
Sugar is outperforming the stock market this year. Here's what's driving it, and where it can go from here
surprise— Washington Systematically Cutting Iran’s Economic Lifelines: Treasury Chief
surprise—- cointelegraph ↗news
Satoshi-era Bitcoin wakes after 16 years of dormancy as 600 BTC moves
surprise— ‘Iranian people build Iran's economy, not U.S. Treasury Department’
surprise—- oil supply ↗news
OPEC+ keeps oil output policy unchanged for October
surprise— Iran: Resistance and Economic Reform Are the Response to US Pressure
surprise—- oil supply ↗news
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
surprise— Sanctions or Illusion? US Claim on Iran’s Financial Lifeline
surprise—- the long end ↗news
PepsiCo Loses to 30-year U.S. Treasury Bonds on Yield. Here's Why It Wins on Everything Else.
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Tether-backed Orionx to shut down after audit flags $7M custody gap
surprise— - oil supply ↗news
OPEC+ set to keep oil output policy unchanged on Sunday, sources say
surprise— - the long end ↗news
5% Treasury Yield Warning: Why Trump Tax Cuts Face a Bond Market Test
surprise— - oil supply ↗news
OPEC+ Holds Steady Amid Market Disruptions
surprise— - the long end ↗news
As government bond yields surge, governments, businesses and households panic — but some are smiling
surprise— - the dollar ↗news
Mexican peso strengthens to 16.89 per dollar, hitting highest level since May 2024
surprise— - cnbc economy ↗news
From ‘mystery vacations’ to hostels, budget travelers get thrifty as prices rise
surprise— - bbc ↗news
Aviation faces hotter, stormier skies – and passengers might have to accept more disruption
surprise— - cnbc economy ↗news
Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Timing the bitcoin market is exciting but nearly impossible. Here's why
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Dollar-backed stablecoins can push local currencies lower, Bank of Korea study finds
surprise— - central banks ↗news
Will the Fed raise interest rates this year? Divided economists weigh in
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Scams by fake job recruiters are getting smarter, and AI is making it worse
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Humanoid robots could upend life as we know it — if only they had better brains
surprise— - bbc ↗news
Jaguar Land Rover confirms planned job cuts
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
British investor thought he lost $2,000 in bitcoin in 2012. He just recovered $4.5 million
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Here’s what happened in crypto today
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Poland upholds crypto bill veto as Zondacrypto scandal widens
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $3.8B in strongest three-week stretch of 2026
surprise— - central banks ↗news
Fed's Waller channels his inner John Lennon with a plea to 'give disinflation a chance'
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
XRP Ledger has fewer active accounts than last year, but bigger trades and more value
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Southeast Asia’s crypto funding rebounds to $680 million as investors focus on mature firms
surprise— Schumer hits Trump over calling Iran war ‘small potatoes’
surprise—- marketwatch ↗news
Will a data center hurt your home’s value? Research says no. Sellers disagree.
surprise— - oil supply ↗news
PERSPECTIVE: UAE Exit Strips OPEC of Clout, Risks Bitter Price War: Bousso
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Micron is doubling down on AI memory chips. It could pay off big for investors.
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Bloom Energy was just named to the S&P 500. These other stocks are also joining.
surprise— - the long end ↗news
Treasury Rates Today: September 4, 2026
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Surprise nonfarm payrolls print sends Bitcoin back below 80K
surprise— - positioning ↗news
CFTC data shows hedge funds loaded up on yen shorts before the surge
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close lower as jobs data raise chances of Fed rate hike
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Pineapple Financial puts $1B in mortgage records on Injective
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
FinCEN ties $13B in crypto scams to non-US operations
surprise— - carry trade ↗news
Japan Has Not Done This Since 1990. If It Happens, the Cheap Money Propping Up US Stocks Gets Expensive
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
U.S. stocks down in final hour as jobs data raise chances of interest-rate hike
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Trump’s threat to stop trade unless there’s a rate cut risks U.S. economic shock
surprise— - cnbc economy ↗news
Women accounted for almost all of job gains in August. Here's why
surprise— - cnbc finance ↗news
White House has vetted candidates for key CFTC vacancies, sources tell CNBC. It's unclear if they will be filled
surprise— - bbc ↗news
Trump calls for interest rate cut after jobs figures raise hike bets
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Crypto Biz: AI took a back seat when Bitcoin started climbing
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement actions with United Texas Bank, Quontic Bank Acquisition Corp., and Quontic Bank Holdings Corp.
surprise— - bls ↗statement
Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Philip R. Lane: Diversity at the European Central Bank
surprise— - boe ↗statement
The institutional form of independent central banks: from history to contemporary challenges - speech by Andrew Bailey
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Financial Results of Japan's Banks for Fiscal 2025
surprise— - boe ↗statement
Homophones – Remarks by Huw Pill
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Notice of the "Meeting on Market Operations"
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances (Projections for Sept.)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Collateral Accepted by the Bank of Japan (End of Aug.)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Bank of Japan Accounts (August 31)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Monetary Base (Aug.)
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Boris Vujčić: Listening to households: expectations, behaviour and monetary policy
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Barr, Unlocking Opportunities for Workers and Entrepreneurs with a Criminal Record
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Bond Market Survey (August 2026)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances and Market Operations (Aug.)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Quarterly Schedule of Outright Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (Competitive Auction Method) (July-September 2026) (Schedule Updates)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Payment and Settlement Statistics (July)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Flow of Funds (Overview of Japan, US, and the Euro area)(1st Quarter 2026)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Average Contract Interest Rates on Loans and Discounts (July)
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Isabel Schnabel: Central banks on-chain
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Warsh, In Our Time
surprise— - boj ↗statement
(BOJ Review) Expanding and Revising the Application of Hedonic Quality Adjustment in the Corporate Goods Price Index
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico
surprise— - boe ↗statement
Delay to the November 2026 RTGS standards release
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Meeting of 22-23 July 2026
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Piero Cipollone: From vision to delivery: building Europe’s tokenised financial market
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Services Producer Price Index (July)
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on July 20 and July 29, 2026
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Indicators for Core CPI
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Piero Cipollone: Interview with ilsussidiario.net
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Financial System Report Annex "Use and Risk Management of Generative AI by Japanese Financial Institutions"
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Bank of Japan Accounts (August 20)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Statistics on Securities Financing Transactions in Japan
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc. and announces termination of enforcement action with Deutsche Bank AG, DB USA Corporation, and Deutsche Bank AG New Yor
surprise—
4.77% is not the top; the bond market is repricing fiscal risk and a 5% handle is in sight. The Trump administration's push for tax cuts comes as the Fed contemplates another rate hike. Each time the 10-year has closed above 4.75% for the first time in decades [AN1], the move extended over the following month. Fiscal expansion without offsetting spending cuts forces the Treasury to issue more debt at a time when the Fed is still tightening. Bond vigilantes are demanding a higher term premium.
the 2 events this stands on
Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms
Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication
The yield has already run 3% in a month, a pace that rarely sticks. The 10-year slipped 0.42% on Wednesday, and the 5% headline is already priced into the curve. Every time the 10-year yield has gained more than 3% in a month [AN2], it has been lower a month later. A yield spike this sharp draws in carry traders and refunding demand. The Treasury's next auction will benefit from the elevated rates, and the Fed may push back against a disorderly rise.
the 1 event this stands on
As government bond yields surge, governments, businesses and households panic — but some are smiling
The 10-year yield crossed 4.75% three times since 2016. After the first cross in October 2023, the yield fell 2.9% in one month; after the second in January 2025, it fell 4.8%. The latest cross on September 1, 2026, has no forward data yet. The dollar was at 99.16 on the latest cross, about where it was during the 2025 instance.
what the picture is drawn from — every close, stretch and line, in words
- us10y: 2.240 on 2016-01-04 → 4.770 on 2026-09-03
- dxy: 98.870 on 2016-01-04 → 99.160 on 2026-09-04
- line 2023-10-03: us10y at 4.810, us10y at 4.810 · after it 1w −4.78% · 1m −2.91% · 3m −17.05% · 6m −8.73% · 12m −17.26%
- line 2025-01-10: us10y at 4.770, us10y at 4.770 · after it 1w −3.35% · 1m −4.82% · 3m −6.08% · 6m −5.66% · 12m −12.58%
- line 2026-09-01: us10y at 4.790, us10y at 4.790 · after it 1w — · 1m — · 3m — · 6m — · 12m —
- level us10y at 4.750 — 4.75%
The checks on both parallels were too thin to say. The first [AN1] matched only three dates since 2007, none of which saw higher yields a month later — too few to lean on. The second [AN2] had 62 matches but only 48% were lower a month later, essentially a coin flip. So the parallels are too thin, so both claims are set aside. What is left standing is the same fiscal-and-rate-hike pressure that put the yield at 4.77% in the first place, and that has not broken today.
Each time the 10-year has closed above 4.75% for the first time in decades [AN1], the move extended over the following month.
3 times in our own history; 0 of them went that way, median -4.8% a month later — too few to say either way.
the chart, the windows and the dates it was met on
| window | n | hits | hit rate | median | 90% ci |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.35% | 1–53% |
| 1m | 3 | 0 | 0% | −4.82% | 1–53% |
met on · 2007-08-07 · 2023-10-03 · 2025-01-10 · 2026-09-01
Every time the 10-year yield has gained more than 3% in a month [AN2], it has been lower a month later.
61 times in our own history; 29 of them went that way, median +0.5% a month later — too few to say either way.
the chart, the windows and the dates it was met on
| window | n | hits | hit rate | median | 90% ci |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 61 | 30 | 49% | +0.00% | 39–60% |
| 1m | 61 | 32 | 52% | +0.54% | 42–63% |
met on · 2016-03-09 · 2016-04-27 · 2016-07-27 · 2016-08-25 · 2016-10-03 · 2017-02-15 · 2017-03-27 · 2017-05-11 · 2017-06-30 · 2017-09-20 · 2017-11-10 · 2017-12-19 · 2018-03-02 · 2018-04-23 · 2018-07-26 · 2018-09-11 · 2019-02-04 · 2019-04-23 · 2019-07-25 · 2019-09-11 · 2019-10-24 · 2019-12-16 · 2020-04-07 · 2020-05-15 · 2020-06-22 · 2020-08-12 · 2020-09-21 · 2020-11-05 · 2020-12-15 · 2021-02-12 · 2021-05-12 · 2021-08-17 · 2021-09-15 · 2021-11-01 · 2021-12-08 · 2022-03-02 · 2022-05-17 · 2022-07-08 · 2022-08-22 · 2022-10-28 · 2022-12-27 · 2023-02-07 · 2023-04-17 · 2023-05-19 · 2023-06-29 · 2023-08-10 · 2023-09-21 · 2024-01-17 · 2024-02-21 · 2024-04-02 · 2024-10-04 · 2024-12-19 · 2025-03-27 · 2025-05-02 · 2025-06-06 · 2025-07-15 · 2025-11-17 · 2025-12-26 · 2026-03-16 · 2026-05-12 · 2026-07-21 · 2026-09-02
Fed and BOJ odds: no free source — only what the operator pastes, marked as a claim
Into today, the machine's call was us10y up at 0.51. Today's checks did not move the needle — the call stands untouched. The fiscal expansion and Fed tightening that put yields at 4.77% are still in place and nothing today upended that. A soft CPI print on September 11 is what would flip it.
At 4.77%, the machine's call on the 10-year yield is up over the next month, though neither historical parallel could settle the argument — both were too thin to say.
never a position, never advice — a lean with a probability, resolved on its date
every call this day wrote down — 33 in all, each with its own date
- spx1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- spx1wflatp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- spx1mdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- nasdaq1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- nasdaq1wupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- nasdaq1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- btc1dupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- btc1wupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-12
- btc1mupp .65pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- dxy1dupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- dxy1wdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- dxy1mdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- us10y1ddownp .51pendingresolves 2026-09-04
- us10y1wupp .51pendingresolves 2026-09-10
- us10y1mupp .51pendingresolves 2026-10-02
- gold1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- gold1wflatp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- gold1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- oil1dupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- oil1wupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- oil1mupp .65pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- jpy1dupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- jpy1wdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- jpy1mdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- us2y1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-04
- us2y1wupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-10
- us2y1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-02
- eth1dupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- eth1wupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-12
- eth1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- us10yclaimflatp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-30
Oil remains above $90 through September 30.
- us10yclaimdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-30
S&P 500 closes below 7,700 on September 30.
- us10yclaimupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-13
Nasdaq closes above 26,507 on September 13.
08:00 — ECB consumer expectations survey for July released. No market impact; the survey is two weeks old and does not alter the fiscal expansion and Fed tightening pressure that has the 10-year at 4.77%.
the 1 event this stands on
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026
01:06 — Mexican peso strengthened to 16.89 per dollar, its highest since May 2024. The move adds to the dollar's 30-day decline but hasn't shifted the bond market's attention from the 5% yield threshold.
the 1 event this stands on
Mexican peso strengthens to 16.89 per dollar, hitting highest level since May 2024
12:03 — OPEC+ kept oil output policy unchanged for October, as expected. Oil is at $91.48, up 21.6% over the past 30 days, and the hold keeps supply tight. The decision does not shift the bond market's focus from the 5% yield threshold but reinforces the energy-cost leg of the inflation picture ahead of CPI on September 11.
the 1 event this stands on
OPEC+ keeps oil output policy unchanged for October
15:15 — Unverified claims of a Treasury debt buyback program landed: $34 billion scheduled for September, $14.5 billion in capacity next week, and the program doubling on September 9. The claims point to 30-year yields near 20-year highs and interest payments above $1 trillion as the driver. If confirmed, a buyback at this scale would absorb supply and work against the fiscal-expansion pressure that has the 10-year at 4.77%. The numbers remain unconfirmed.
the 2 events this stands on
- operator paste
=> $34 BILLION+ in debt buybacks scheduled for September alone. => $14.5 BILLION capacity launching next week. => Program doubles in size on September 9.
- operator paste
With 30 year yields sitting near 20 year highs and annual interest payments topping $1 TRILLION the government has no choice. Treasury Secretary Bessent claims its just for liquidity not controlling yields but the math doesnt lie.
13:26 — OPEC+ held output steady as US-Iran strikes resumed. Oil is at $91.48, up 21.6% over 30 days. The resumed strikes add a geopolitical supply-risk layer that the earlier output decision did not carry, reinforcing the energy-cost pressure on inflation ahead of CPI on September 11.
the 1 event this stands on
OPEC Plus Holds Oil Production Steady as U.S.-Iran Strikes Resume
15:44 — MarketWatch questioned whether the US is losing its safe-haven status as global central banks pull gold. Gold is at $4,477, down 0.34% on the day but up 5.4% over 30 days. A rotation away from US assets by foreign central banks would thin demand for Treasuries at a time when fiscal expansion is already forcing more supply, adding to the pressure that has the 10-year yield at 4.77%.
the 1 event this stands on
Is U.S. losing its safe-haven status? Why global central banks are pulling gold.
16:49 — Older Fed and ECB statements surfaced, including an ECB consumer expectations survey and two Fed enforcement actions. None of these shift the bond market's focus from the 5% yield threshold.
the 3 events this stands on
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc. and announces termination of enforcement action with Deutsche Bank AG, DB USA Corporation, and Deutsche Bank AG New Yor
The Treasury buyback program is set to double on September 9 — confirmation of that move could pull yields lower before the data lands. The ECB rate decision follows on September 10, then U.S. CPI on September 11. A core CPI y/y above 2.4% would push yields toward 5%; a miss below 2.4% would dump them back below 4.75%. A close under 4.75% would break the month-long up trend.
revised at 15:15 utc — earlier it read
The next real test is the ECB rate decision on September 10, followed by U.S. CPI on September 11. A core CPI y/y above 2.4% would push yields toward 5%; a miss below 2.4% would dump them back below 4.75%. A close under 4.75% would break the month-long up trend.
why · Treasury buyback program doubling on September 9 — a new date that could move yields before CPI
- forexfactoryreleaseAUD
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
previous 0.8%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Leading Indicators
forecast 117.9%previous 116.4%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Industrial Production m/m
forecast 0.1%previous 0.2%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Lloyds HPI m/m
forecast 0.2%previous 0.0%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
Foreign Currency Reserves
previous 768Bno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
Unemployment Rate
forecast 3.1%previous 3.1%no result yet
all 77 — 71 more
- forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Sentix Investor Confidence
forecast 2.1previous 0.9no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Final Employment Change q/q
forecast 0.1%previous 0.1%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Revised GDP q/q
forecast 0.4%previous 0.4%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseCAD
Bank Holiday
no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Bank Holiday
no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
Manufacturing Sales q/q
previous 2.8%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
forecast 1.2%previous 1.0%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Average Cash Earnings y/y
forecast 3.9%previous 3.4%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Bank Lending y/y
forecast 5.5%previous 5.4%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Current Account
forecast 2.46Tprevious 1.40Tno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Final GDP Price Index y/y
forecast 2.6%previous 2.6%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Final GDP q/q
forecast 0.4%previous 0.3%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Westpac Consumer Sentiment
previous 6.0%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
NAB Business Confidence
previous -6no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
Trade Balance
forecast 795Bprevious 767Bno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
USD-Denominated Trade Balance
forecast 120.1Bprevious 112.5Bno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks
no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Economy Watchers Sentiment
forecast 46.3previous 45.7no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Trade Balance
forecast 16.5Bprevious 15.4Bno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
French Trade Balance
forecast -6.0Bprevious -5.8Bno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks
no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
NFIB Small Business Index
forecast 99.2previous 99.8no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Consumer Credit m/m
forecast 13.2Bprevious 14.2Bno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
M2 Money Stock y/y
forecast 2.2%previous 2.2%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
CPI y/y
forecast 0.9%previous 0.5%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
PPI y/y
forecast 3.6%previous 3.5%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
previous 50.4%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
French Industrial Production m/m
forecast 0.1%previous 0.1%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German 10-y Bond Auction
previous 3.26|1.1no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
ADP Weekly Employment Change
no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Buba President Nagel Speaks
no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
10-y Bond Auction
previous 4.68|2.5no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
RICS House Price Balance
forecast -31%previous -30%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
MI Inflation Expectations
previous 4.9%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Final CPI m/m
forecast 0.2%previous 0.2%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Industrial Production m/m
forecast 0.3%previous -1.0%no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactEUR
Main Refinancing Rate
forecast 2.65%previous 2.40%no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactEUR
Monetary Policy Statement
no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
Core PPI m/m
forecast 0.3%previous 0.2%no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
PPI m/m
forecast 0.4%previous 0.0%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Unemployment Claims
forecast 205Kprevious 206Kno result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactEUR
ECB Press Conference
no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Existing Home Sales
forecast 3.98Mprevious 4.06Mno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
forecast 1.3%previous 1.3%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Natural Gas Storage
previous 30Bno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Crude Oil Inventories
previous -4.5Mno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
30-y Bond Auction
previous 5.22|2.4no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index
previous 54.3no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
BSI Manufacturing Index
forecast 2.5previous -1.8no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
PPI y/y
forecast 7.4%previous 7.2%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Construction Output m/m
forecast 0.1%previous -0.1%no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactGBP
GDP m/m
forecast 0.0%previous 0.3%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Goods Trade Balance
forecast -22.4Bprevious -23.0Bno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Index of Services 3m/3m
forecast 0.5%previous 0.5%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Industrial Production m/m
forecast -0.1%previous -0.2%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Manufacturing Production m/m
forecast 0.2%previous -0.5%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
SECO Consumer Climate
forecast -32previous -35no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
forecast 5.3%previous 5.3%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Consumer Inflation Expectations
previous 4.0%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks
no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
Core CPI m/m
forecast 0.2%previous 0.2%no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
Core CPI y/y
forecast 2.4%previous 2.5%no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
CPI m/m
forecast 0.4%previous 0.1%no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
CPI y/y
forecast 3.4%previous 3.4%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
forecast 51.0previous 51.0no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
previous 4.3%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Fed Monetary Policy Report
no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Federal Budget Balance
forecast -202.4Bprevious -432.3Bno result yet - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseAll
BRICS Summit
no result yet
up and down count only beyond ±0.25% (1d) · ±0.75% (1w) · ±1.5% (1m); inside is flat
| asset | horizon | n | hits | hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| spx | 1d | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| nasdaq | 1d | 3 | 2 | 67% |
| btc | 1d | 4 | 1 | 25% |
| dxy | 1d | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| us10y | 1d | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| gold | 1d | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| oil | 1d | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| eth | 1d | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| eurusd | 1d | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| jpy | 1d | 1 | 0 | 0% |