PAKUP·AI

the timeline · computed, sourced — and called

10-year yield at 4.77% as 5% warning rattles bond market

2026-09-06 · 6 revisions · last run on demand

  1. the day
  2. 01 the read
  3. 02 the dossier
  4. 04 the test
01the open
treasury yields test 5% as fiscal expansion collides with rate hikes
  1. 11:13 utc · run on demand — the day's first word
  2. 11:24 utc · run on demand — ECB consumer expectations survey from August 21 printed, too stale to move the 4.77% yield
  3. 11:37 utc · run on demand — Mexican peso strength noted; treasury yield narrative unchanged.
  4. 15:15 utc · run on demand — Treasury debt buyback claims landed at 15:15 — $34 billion in September, program doubling September 9. OPEC+ held output unchanged for October.
  5. 16:44 utc · run on demand — OPEC+ ties output hold to resumed US-Iran strikes; MarketWatch questions US safe-haven status as central banks pull gold
  6. 16:49 utc · run on demand — No new events after 16:44 UTC change the day's reading.
what a later look set aside — 1 passage
  • rewritten

    The next real test is the ECB rate decision on September 10, followed by U.S. CPI on September 11. A core CPI y/y above 2.4% would push yields toward 5%; a miss below 2.4% would dump them back below 4.75%. A close under 4.75% would break the month-long up trend.

The US 10-year yield stands at 4.77%, having slipped 0.42% on Wednesday but up 2.14% on the week. A new warning that yields could break 5% landed today, putting the bond market on edge. The 30-year now yields more than PepsiCo stock.

what landed — 99 sourced events, with the numbers
  • bbc news

    Minister to meet Jaguar Land Rover boss as thousands of job cuts expected

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  • coindesk news

    Ukrainian police took down a crypto scam that stole up to $1 million a month

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  • marketwatch news

    Is U.S. losing its safe-haven status? Why global central banks are pulling gold.

    surprise
  • operator pastepaste-claim

    => $34 BILLION+ in debt buybacks scheduled for September alone. => $14.5 BILLION capacity launching next week. => Program doubles in size on September 9.

    surprise
  • operator pastepaste-claim

    Position accordingly before the market realizes whats happening. $BTC

    surprise
  • operator pastepaste-claim

    The last time this buyback program expanded ? Bitcoin pumped 22% in a single week.

    surprise
  • operator pastepaste-claim

    Whale Factor @WhaleFactor 🐋 WHALE WATCH : The US Treasury is quietly preparing one of the biggest liquidity injections of the year.

    surprise
  • operator pastepaste-claim

    With 30 year yields sitting near 20 year highs and annual interest payments topping $1 TRILLION the government has no choice. Treasury Secretary Bessent claims its just for liquidity not controlling yields but the math doesnt lie.

    surprise
all 9991 more
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    Here’s what happened in crypto today

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  • cnbc finance news

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  • treasury remarks news

    Washington Systematically Cutting Iran’s Economic Lifelines: Treasury Chief

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  • cointelegraph news

    Satoshi-era Bitcoin wakes after 16 years of dormancy as 600 BTC moves

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  • treasury remarks news

    ‘Iranian people build Iran's economy, not U.S. Treasury Department’

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  • oil supply news

    OPEC+ keeps oil output policy unchanged for October

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  • treasury remarks news

    Iran: Resistance and Economic Reform Are the Response to US Pressure

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  • oil supply news

    Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

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  • treasury remarks news

    Sanctions or Illusion? US Claim on Iran’s Financial Lifeline

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  • the long end news

    PepsiCo Loses to 30-year U.S. Treasury Bonds on Yield. Here's Why It Wins on Everything Else.

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  • cointelegraph news

    Tether-backed Orionx to shut down after audit flags $7M custody gap

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  • oil supply news

    OPEC+ set to keep oil output policy unchanged on Sunday, sources say

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  • the long end news

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  • oil supply news

    OPEC+ Holds Steady Amid Market Disruptions

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  • the long end news

    As government bond yields surge, governments, businesses and households panic — but some are smiling

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  • the dollar news

    Mexican peso strengthens to 16.89 per dollar, hitting highest level since May 2024

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  • cnbc economy news

    From ‘mystery vacations’ to hostels, budget travelers get thrifty as prices rise

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  • bbc news

    Aviation faces hotter, stormier skies – and passengers might have to accept more disruption

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  • cnbc economy news

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  • coindesk news

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  • marketwatch news

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  • bbc news

    Jaguar Land Rover confirms planned job cuts

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  • coindesk news

    British investor thought he lost $2,000 in bitcoin in 2012. He just recovered $4.5 million

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  • cointelegraph news

    Here’s what happened in crypto today

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  • cointelegraph news

    Poland upholds crypto bill veto as Zondacrypto scandal widens

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  • cointelegraph news

    Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $3.8B in strongest three-week stretch of 2026

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  • central banks news

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  • coindesk news

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    Southeast Asia’s crypto funding rebounds to $680 million as investors focus on mature firms

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  • treasury remarks news

    Schumer hits Trump over calling Iran war ‘small potatoes’

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  • marketwatch news

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  • oil supply news

    PERSPECTIVE: UAE Exit Strips OPEC of Clout, Risks Bitter Price War: Bousso

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  • marketwatch news

    Micron is doubling down on AI memory chips. It could pay off big for investors.

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  • marketwatch news

    Bloom Energy was just named to the S&P 500. These other stocks are also joining.

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  • the long end news

    Treasury Rates Today: September 4, 2026

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  • cointelegraph news

    Surprise nonfarm payrolls print sends Bitcoin back below 80K

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  • positioning news

    CFTC data shows hedge funds loaded up on yen shorts before the surge

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  • marketwatch news

    Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close lower as jobs data raise chances of Fed rate hike

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  • cointelegraph news

    Pineapple Financial puts $1B in mortgage records on Injective

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  • cointelegraph news

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  • carry trade news

    Japan Has Not Done This Since 1990. If It Happens, the Cheap Money Propping Up US Stocks Gets Expensive

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  • marketwatch news

    U.S. stocks down in final hour as jobs data raise chances of interest-rate hike

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  • marketwatch news

    Trump’s threat to stop trade unless there’s a rate cut risks U.S. economic shock

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  • cnbc economy news

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  • cnbc finance news

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  • bbc news

    Trump calls for interest rate cut after jobs figures raise hike bets

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  • cointelegraph news

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  • fed statement

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  • bls statement

    Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers

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  • ecb statement

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  • boe statement

    The institutional form of independent central banks: from history to contemporary challenges - speech by Andrew Bailey

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  • boj statement

    Financial Results of Japan's Banks for Fiscal 2025

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  • boe statement

    Homophones – Remarks by Huw Pill

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  • fed statement

    Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication

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  • boj statement

    Notice of the "Meeting on Market Operations"

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances (Projections for Sept.)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Collateral Accepted by the Bank of Japan (End of Aug.)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Bank of Japan Accounts (August 31)

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  • boj statement

    Monetary Base (Aug.)

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  • ecb statement

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  • fed statement

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  • boj statement

    Bond Market Survey (August 2026)

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  • boj statement

    Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances and Market Operations (Aug.)

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  • boj statement

    Quarterly Schedule of Outright Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (Competitive Auction Method) (July-September 2026) (Schedule Updates)

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  • boj statement

    Payment and Settlement Statistics (July)

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  • boj statement

    Flow of Funds (Overview of Japan, US, and the Euro area)(1st Quarter 2026)

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  • boj statement

    Average Contract Interest Rates on Loans and Discounts (July)

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  • ecb statement

    Isabel Schnabel: Central banks on-chain

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  • fed statement

    Warsh, In Our Time

    surprise
  • boj statement

    (BOJ Review) Expanding and Revising the Application of Hedonic Quality Adjustment in the Corporate Goods Price Index

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  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico

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  • boe statement

    Delay to the November 2026 RTGS standards release

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  • ecb statement

    Meeting of 22-23 July 2026

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  • ecb statement

    Piero Cipollone: From vision to delivery: building Europe’s tokenised financial market

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  • boj statement

    Services Producer Price Index (July)

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on July 20 and July 29, 2026

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  • boj statement

    Indicators for Core CPI

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  • boj statement

    Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan

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  • ecb statement

    Piero Cipollone: Interview with ilsussidiario.net

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  • boj statement

    Financial System Report Annex "Use and Risk Management of Generative AI by Japanese Financial Institutions"

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  • boj statement

    Bank of Japan Accounts (August 20)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Statistics on Securities Financing Transactions in Japan

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc. and announces termination of enforcement action with Deutsche Bank AG, DB USA Corporation, and Deutsche Bank AG New Yor

    surprise

4.77% is not the top; the bond market is repricing fiscal risk and a 5% handle is in sight. The Trump administration's push for tax cuts comes as the Fed contemplates another rate hike. Each time the 10-year has closed above 4.75% for the first time in decades [AN1], the move extended over the following month. Fiscal expansion without offsetting spending cuts forces the Treasury to issue more debt at a time when the Fed is still tightening. Bond vigilantes are demanding a higher term premium.

the 2 events this stands on
  • Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms

  • fed

    Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication

The yield has already run 3% in a month, a pace that rarely sticks. The 10-year slipped 0.42% on Wednesday, and the 5% headline is already priced into the curve. Every time the 10-year yield has gained more than 3% in a month [AN2], it has been lower a month later. A yield spike this sharp draws in carry traders and refunding demand. The Treasury's next auction will benefit from the elevated rates, and the Fed may push back against a disorderly rise.

the 1 event this stands on
  • As government bond yields surge, governments, businesses and households panic — but some are smiling

CH110-year yield and the dollar

The 10-year yield crossed 4.75% three times since 2016. After the first cross in October 2023, the yield fell 2.9% in one month; after the second in January 2025, it fell 4.8%. The latest cross on September 1, 2026, has no forward data yet. The dollar was at 99.16 on the latest cross, about where it was during the 2025 instance.

what the picture is drawn from — every close, stretch and line, in words
  • us10y: 2.240 on 2016-01-04 → 4.770 on 2026-09-03
  • dxy: 98.870 on 2016-01-04 → 99.160 on 2026-09-04
  • line 2023-10-03: us10y at 4.810, us10y at 4.810 · after it 1w −4.78% · 1m −2.91% · 3m −17.05% · 6m −8.73% · 12m −17.26%
  • line 2025-01-10: us10y at 4.770, us10y at 4.770 · after it 1w −3.35% · 1m −4.82% · 3m −6.08% · 6m −5.66% · 12m −12.58%
  • line 2026-09-01: us10y at 4.790, us10y at 4.790 · after it 1w — · 1m — · 3m — · 6m — · 12m —
  • level us10y at 4.750 — 4.75%

The checks on both parallels were too thin to say. The first [AN1] matched only three dates since 2007, none of which saw higher yields a month later — too few to lean on. The second [AN2] had 62 matches but only 48% were lower a month later, essentially a coin flip. So the parallels are too thin, so both claims are set aside. What is left standing is the same fiscal-and-rate-hike pressure that put the yield at 4.77% in the first place, and that has not broken today.

AN1thinmet on 4 dates

Each time the 10-year has closed above 4.75% for the first time in decades [AN1], the move extended over the following month.

too thin to settle

3 times in our own history; 0 of them went that way, median -4.8% a month later — too few to say either way.

the chart, the windows and the dates it was met on
windownhitshit ratemedian90% ci
1w300%−3.35%1–53%
1m300%−4.82%1–53%

met on · 2007-08-07 · 2023-10-03 · 2025-01-10 · 2026-09-01

AN2thinmet on 62 dates

Every time the 10-year yield has gained more than 3% in a month [AN2], it has been lower a month later.

too thin to settle

61 times in our own history; 29 of them went that way, median +0.5% a month later — too few to say either way.

the chart, the windows and the dates it was met on
windownhitshit ratemedian90% ci
1w613049%+0.00%39–60%
1m613252%+0.54%42–63%

met on · 2016-03-09 · 2016-04-27 · 2016-07-27 · 2016-08-25 · 2016-10-03 · 2017-02-15 · 2017-03-27 · 2017-05-11 · 2017-06-30 · 2017-09-20 · 2017-11-10 · 2017-12-19 · 2018-03-02 · 2018-04-23 · 2018-07-26 · 2018-09-11 · 2019-02-04 · 2019-04-23 · 2019-07-25 · 2019-09-11 · 2019-10-24 · 2019-12-16 · 2020-04-07 · 2020-05-15 · 2020-06-22 · 2020-08-12 · 2020-09-21 · 2020-11-05 · 2020-12-15 · 2021-02-12 · 2021-05-12 · 2021-08-17 · 2021-09-15 · 2021-11-01 · 2021-12-08 · 2022-03-02 · 2022-05-17 · 2022-07-08 · 2022-08-22 · 2022-10-28 · 2022-12-27 · 2023-02-07 · 2023-04-17 · 2023-05-19 · 2023-06-29 · 2023-08-10 · 2023-09-21 · 2024-01-17 · 2024-02-21 · 2024-04-02 · 2024-10-04 · 2024-12-19 · 2025-03-27 · 2025-05-02 · 2025-06-06 · 2025-07-15 · 2025-11-17 · 2025-12-26 · 2026-03-16 · 2026-05-12 · 2026-07-21 · 2026-09-02

Fed and BOJ odds: no free source — only what the operator pastes, marked as a claim

the thread — where the call before this one stands

Into today, the machine's call was us10y up at 0.51. Today's checks did not move the needle — the call stands untouched. The fiscal expansion and Fed tightening that put yields at 4.77% are still in place and nothing today upended that. A soft CPI print on September 11 is what would flip it.

At 4.77%, the machine's call on the 10-year yield is up over the next month, though neither historical parallel could settle the argument — both were too thin to say.

the machine's call · us10y up · p .51

never a position, never advice — a lean with a probability, resolved on its date

every call this day wrote down — 33 in all, each with its own date
  • spx1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
  • spx1wflatp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • spx1mdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
  • nasdaq1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
  • nasdaq1wupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • nasdaq1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
  • btc1dupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-06
  • btc1wupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-12
  • btc1mupp .65pendingresolves 2026-10-04
  • dxy1dupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
  • dxy1wdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • dxy1mdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
  • us10y1ddownp .51pendingresolves 2026-09-04
  • us10y1wupp .51pendingresolves 2026-09-10
  • us10y1mupp .51pendingresolves 2026-10-02
  • gold1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
  • gold1wflatp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • gold1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
  • oil1dupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-05
  • oil1wupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • oil1mupp .65pendingresolves 2026-10-03
  • jpy1dupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
  • jpy1wdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • jpy1mdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
  • us2y1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-04
  • us2y1wupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-10
  • us2y1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-02
  • eth1dupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-06
  • eth1wupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-12
  • eth1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-04
  • us10yclaimflatp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-30

    Oil remains above $90 through September 30.

  • us10yclaimdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-30

    S&P 500 closes below 7,700 on September 30.

  • us10yclaimupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-13

    Nasdaq closes above 26,507 on September 13.

11:24 utc · run on demand

08:00 — ECB consumer expectations survey for July released. No market impact; the survey is two weeks old and does not alter the fiscal expansion and Fed tightening pressure that has the 10-year at 4.77%.

the 1 event this stands on
  • ecb

    ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026

11:37 utc · run on demand

01:06 — Mexican peso strengthened to 16.89 per dollar, its highest since May 2024. The move adds to the dollar's 30-day decline but hasn't shifted the bond market's attention from the 5% yield threshold.

the 1 event this stands on
  • the dollar

    Mexican peso strengthens to 16.89 per dollar, hitting highest level since May 2024

15:15 utc · run on demand

12:03 — OPEC+ kept oil output policy unchanged for October, as expected. Oil is at $91.48, up 21.6% over the past 30 days, and the hold keeps supply tight. The decision does not shift the bond market's focus from the 5% yield threshold but reinforces the energy-cost leg of the inflation picture ahead of CPI on September 11.

the 1 event this stands on
  • oil supply

    OPEC+ keeps oil output policy unchanged for October

15:15 utc · run on demand

15:15 — Unverified claims of a Treasury debt buyback program landed: $34 billion scheduled for September, $14.5 billion in capacity next week, and the program doubling on September 9. The claims point to 30-year yields near 20-year highs and interest payments above $1 trillion as the driver. If confirmed, a buyback at this scale would absorb supply and work against the fiscal-expansion pressure that has the 10-year at 4.77%. The numbers remain unconfirmed.

the 2 events this stands on
  • operator paste

    => $34 BILLION+ in debt buybacks scheduled for September alone. => $14.5 BILLION capacity launching next week. => Program doubles in size on September 9.

  • operator paste

    With 30 year yields sitting near 20 year highs and annual interest payments topping $1 TRILLION the government has no choice. Treasury Secretary Bessent claims its just for liquidity not controlling yields but the math doesnt lie.

16:44 utc · run on demand

13:26 — OPEC+ held output steady as US-Iran strikes resumed. Oil is at $91.48, up 21.6% over 30 days. The resumed strikes add a geopolitical supply-risk layer that the earlier output decision did not carry, reinforcing the energy-cost pressure on inflation ahead of CPI on September 11.

the 1 event this stands on
  • oil supply

    OPEC Plus Holds Oil Production Steady as U.S.-Iran Strikes Resume

16:44 utc · run on demand

15:44 — MarketWatch questioned whether the US is losing its safe-haven status as global central banks pull gold. Gold is at $4,477, down 0.34% on the day but up 5.4% over 30 days. A rotation away from US assets by foreign central banks would thin demand for Treasuries at a time when fiscal expansion is already forcing more supply, adding to the pressure that has the 10-year yield at 4.77%.

the 1 event this stands on
  • marketwatch

    Is U.S. losing its safe-haven status? Why global central banks are pulling gold.

16:49 utc · run on demand

16:49 — Older Fed and ECB statements surfaced, including an ECB consumer expectations survey and two Fed enforcement actions. None of these shift the bond market's focus from the 5% yield threshold.

the 3 events this stands on
  • ecb

    ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026

  • fed

    Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc

  • fed

    Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc. and announces termination of enforcement action with Deutsche Bank AG, DB USA Corporation, and Deutsche Bank AG New Yor

The Treasury buyback program is set to double on September 9 — confirmation of that move could pull yields lower before the data lands. The ECB rate decision follows on September 10, then U.S. CPI on September 11. A core CPI y/y above 2.4% would push yields toward 5%; a miss below 2.4% would dump them back below 4.75%. A close under 4.75% would break the month-long up trend.

revised at 15:15 utc — earlier it read

The next real test is the ECB rate decision on September 10, followed by U.S. CPI on September 11. A core CPI y/y above 2.4% would push yields toward 5%; a miss below 2.4% would dump them back below 4.75%. A close under 4.75% would break the month-long up trend.

why · Treasury buyback program doubling on September 9 — a new date that could move yields before CPI

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all 7771 more
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  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    M2 Money Stock y/y

    forecast 2.2%previous 2.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    CPI y/y

    forecast 0.9%previous 0.5%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    PPI y/y

    forecast 3.6%previous 3.5%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y

    previous 50.4%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    French Industrial Production m/m

    forecast 0.1%previous 0.1%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German 10-y Bond Auction

    previous 3.26|1.1no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    ADP Weekly Employment Change

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Buba President Nagel Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    10-y Bond Auction

    previous 4.68|2.5no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    RICS House Price Balance

    forecast -31%previous -30%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    MI Inflation Expectations

    previous 4.9%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Final CPI m/m

    forecast 0.2%previous 0.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Industrial Production m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous -1.0%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactEUR

    Main Refinancing Rate

    forecast 2.65%previous 2.40%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactEUR

    Monetary Policy Statement

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Core PPI m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous 0.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    PPI m/m

    forecast 0.4%previous 0.0%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Unemployment Claims

    forecast 205Kprevious 206Kno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactEUR

    ECB Press Conference

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Existing Home Sales

    forecast 3.98Mprevious 4.06Mno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Final Wholesale Inventories m/m

    forecast 1.3%previous 1.3%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Natural Gas Storage

    previous 30Bno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Crude Oil Inventories

    previous -4.5Mno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    30-y Bond Auction

    previous 5.22|2.4no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseNZD

    BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index

    previous 54.3no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    BSI Manufacturing Index

    forecast 2.5previous -1.8no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    PPI y/y

    forecast 7.4%previous 7.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Construction Output m/m

    forecast 0.1%previous -0.1%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactGBP

    GDP m/m

    forecast 0.0%previous 0.3%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Goods Trade Balance

    forecast -22.4Bprevious -23.0Bno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Index of Services 3m/3m

    forecast 0.5%previous 0.5%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Industrial Production m/m

    forecast -0.1%previous -0.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Manufacturing Production m/m

    forecast 0.2%previous -0.5%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    SECO Consumer Climate

    forecast -32previous -35no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate

    forecast 5.3%previous 5.3%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Consumer Inflation Expectations

    previous 4.0%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Core CPI m/m

    forecast 0.2%previous 0.2%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Core CPI y/y

    forecast 2.4%previous 2.5%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    CPI m/m

    forecast 0.4%previous 0.1%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    CPI y/y

    forecast 3.4%previous 3.4%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

    forecast 51.0previous 51.0no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

    previous 4.3%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Fed Monetary Policy Report

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Federal Budget Balance

    forecast -202.4Bprevious -432.3Bno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    ECB President Lagarde Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseAll

    BRICS Summit

    no result yet
the scorecard · every call resolved in publicupdated 2026-09-06 16:49 utc
spx · 1d
0%
n 3 · ci 1–53
nasdaq · 1d
67%
n 3 · ci 25–90
btc · 1d
25%
n 4 · ci 8–66
dxy · 1d
100%
n 3 · ci 47–99
us10y · 1d
0%
n 3 · ci 1–53
gold · 1d
0%
n 3 · ci 1–53
oil · 1d
100%
n 3 · ci 47–99
eth · 1d
0%
n 2 · ci 2–63
eurusd · 1d
100%
n 1 · ci 22–97
jpy · 1d
0%
n 1 · ci 3–78
overall38% of 26ci 25–55brier .29

up and down count only beyond ±0.25% (1d) · ±0.75% (1w) · ±1.5% (1m); inside is flat

assethorizonnhitshit rate
spx1d300%
nasdaq1d3267%
btc1d4125%
dxy1d33100%
us10y1d300%
gold1d300%
oil1d33100%
eth1d200%
eurusd1d11100%
jpy1d100%