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REPORT · US10Y v2· ARCHIVED
PAKUP·AI
LIVING REPORT · REPORT NO. 2
v2 · 2026-08-13
ARCHIVED VERSION

US 10Y Treasury yield 4.63% -1.07%

rate · data as of 2026-08-13 · computed, sourced, never predicted

⚠ data-quality notice

This version was computed while a data-feed defect was live (missing observations parsed as zero — fixed 2026-08-18). Its numbers are preserved exactly as published, per the append-only contract; open the latest version for the corrected read.

00Executive summary

US 10Y Treasury yield closed at 4.63% (-1.07% on the day). Over the last month it is +1.76%, over the last year +8.69%. It sits 2.53% below the 52-week high of 4.75% (52-week low 0%).

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

latest change — 4.68% → 4.63% (-1.07% since v1)2 invalidation conditions stated — section 06
01What changed — v2 vs v1
  • · 4.68% → 4.63% (-1.07% since v1)
02Technicals

US 10Y Treasury yield closed at 4.63% (-1.07% on the day). Over the last month it is +1.76%, over the last year +8.69%. It sits 2.53% below the 52-week high of 4.75% (52-week low 0%).

Trend: price is ABOVE the 200-day average (4.13%) and above the 50-day (4.38%) — trend strength (R², 90d) NaN, direction up.

Volatility: 30-day realized vol is NaN% annualized, the 0th percentile of this asset's own history — a quiet tape. Short-horizon behavior leans no clear_bias.

Structure (90 days): range 0% – 4.75%; the most-touched level is 4.47% (30 touches).

1W
-1.28%
1M
+1.76%
1Y
+8.69%
FROM 52W HIGH
-2.53%
03Sentiment

The tape leans constructive: 48% of the last 90 sessions closed up, direction up, short-horizon behavior no clear bias.

Positioning: 0.34 standard deviations above the 90-day mean, 3.34% from the all-time high of this series.

computed from price action, not from opinions or positioning surveys

04Consensus read

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

The 1-month move (+1.76%) agrees with the 1-year trend (+8.69%).

Trading within 2.53% of the 52-week high — priced near its best.

analyst-rating feeds are licensed; this section reads the market's own positioning instead

05In the air — headlines, not causes
  • · 10-year Treasury yield inches higher as traders digest soft retail sales, monitor the Middle East CNBC · 14h ago
  • · The 30-year Treasury yield hit levels not seen since 2007. What does that mean for investors and the economy? Chase Bank · 8h ago
  • · Treasury Rates Today: August 14, 2026 Forbes · 3h ago
  • · Response To Readers: Regarding “The Myth Of Yen Intervention And US Interest Rates” Japan Economy Watch · 1h ago
  • · US yield curve twists expose Trump's and Bessent's rate dilemma Reuters · 71h ago
06What would change this read
  • · The trend read flips on a daily close below the 200-day average at 4.13%.
  • · The volatility read changes if realized vol leaves its current regime (now the 0th percentile).
  • · nothing here is a prediction or advice — it is a computed description of end-of-day data
4.63%-1.07%CONSTRUCTIVE