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REPORT · US2Y v3· ARCHIVED
PAKUP·AI
LIVING REPORT · REPORT NO. 3
v3 · 2026-08-14
ARCHIVED VERSION

US 2Y Treasury yield 4.17% +0.48%

rate · data as of 2026-08-14 · computed, sourced, never predicted

⚠ data-quality notice

This version was computed while a data-feed defect was live (missing observations parsed as zero — fixed 2026-08-18). Its numbers are preserved exactly as published, per the append-only contract; open the latest version for the corrected read.

00Executive summary

US 2Y Treasury yield closed at 4.17% (+0.48% on the day). Over the last month it is +0.24%, over the last year +16.16%. It sits 4.58% below the 52-week high of 4.37% (52-week low 0%).

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

latest change — first committed version2 invalidation conditions stated — section 07
01What changed — v3 vs v2
  • · first committed version — nothing to diff against yet
02Technicals

US 2Y Treasury yield closed at 4.17% (+0.48% on the day). Over the last month it is +0.24%, over the last year +16.16%. It sits 4.58% below the 52-week high of 4.37% (52-week low 0%).

Trend: price is ABOVE the 200-day average (3.63%) and above the 50-day (4.02%) — trend strength (R², 90d) NaN, direction up.

Volatility: 30-day realized vol is NaN% annualized, the 0th percentile of this asset's own history — a quiet tape. Short-horizon behavior leans no clear_bias.

Structure (90 days): range 0% – 4.37%; the most-touched level is 4.14% (26 touches).

1W
-0.48%
1M
+0.24%
1Y
+16.16%
FROM 52W HIGH
-4.58%
03Risk

Risk: the deepest drawdown of the last year was 100% (2025-08-28 → 2025-09-01); price now sits 4.58% below the trailing-year peak. Worst single session: -100% (2025-09-01).

MAX DD 1Y
-100%
FROM 1Y PEAK
-4.58%
BEST DAY
WORST DAY
-100%
04Sentiment

The tape leans constructive: 47% of the last 90 sessions closed up, direction up, short-horizon behavior no clear bias.

Positioning: 0.31 standard deviations above the 90-day mean, 5.23% from the all-time high of this series.

computed from price action, not from opinions or positioning surveys

05Consensus read

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

The 1-month move (+0.24%) agrees with the 1-year trend (+16.16%).

Trading within 4.58% of the 52-week high — priced near its best.

analyst-rating feeds are licensed; this section reads the market's own positioning instead

06In the air — headlines, not causes
07What would change this read
  • · The trend read flips on a daily close below the 200-day average at 3.63%.
  • · The volatility read changes if realized vol leaves its current regime (now the 0th percentile).
  • · nothing here is a prediction or advice — it is a computed description of end-of-day data
4.17%+0.48%CONSTRUCTIVE