Gold $4,378 -0.05%

commodity · data as of 2026-08-15 · computed, sourced, never predicted

00Executive summary

Gold closed at $4,378 (-0.05% on the day). Over the last month it is +7.96%, over the last year +3.91%. It sits 22.52% below the 52-week high of $5,651 (52-week low $3,945).

Price is between its 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's short- and long-horizon votes disagree.

latest change — $4,388 → $4,378 (-0.22% since v1)2 invalidation conditions stated — section 06

01What changed — v2 vs v1

· $4,388 → $4,378 (-0.22% since v1)
· short-horizon behavior no clear_bias → mean reverting

02Technicals

Gold closed at $4,378 (-0.05% on the day). Over the last month it is +7.96%, over the last year +3.91%. It sits 22.52% below the 52-week high of $5,651 (52-week low $3,945).

Note: priced via PAXG (tokenized gold), which tracks spot closely.

Trend: price is BELOW the 200-day average ($4,565) and above the 50-day ($4,130) — trend strength (R², 90d) 0.28, direction sideways.

Volatility: 30-day realized vol is 20% annualized, the 54th percentile of this asset's own history — a normal tape. Short-horizon behavior leans mean reverting.

Structure (90 days): range $3,945 – $4,585; the most-touched level is $4,029 (29 touches).

-0.43%

+7.96%

+3.91%

FROM 52W HIGH

-22.52%

03Sentiment

The tape leans neutral: 48% of the last 90 sessions closed up, direction sideways, short-horizon behavior mean reverting.

Positioning: 0.85 standard deviations above the 90-day mean, 22.52% from the all-time high of this series.

computed from price action, not from opinions or positioning surveys

04Consensus read

Price is between its 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's short- and long-horizon votes disagree.

The 1-month move (+7.96%) agrees with the 1-year trend (+3.91%).

Trading 22.52% below the 52-week high.

analyst-rating feeds are licensed; this section reads the market's own positioning instead

05In the air — headlines, not causes

· Where gold price is headed next as Fed rate hike and inflation odds change direction — CNBC · 76h ago
· Gold Price Climbed After July Inflation Data, But Bitcoin Didn’t. Why? — Yahoo Finance · 77h ago
· LBMA snapshot survey predicts gold price average near $4,500/oz by year-end — KITCO · 80h ago
· Current price of gold as of August 10, 2026 — Fortune · 132h ago
· Why are gold prices falling? 4 factors that are impacting gold's value — CBS News · 123h ago

06What would change this read

· The trend read flips on a daily close above the 200-day average at $4,565.
· The volatility read changes if realized vol leaves its current regime (now the 54th percentile).
· nothing here is a prediction or advice — it is a computed description of end-of-day data