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how the read evolved · 5 versions · 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-20
REPORT · MSFT v5
PAKUP·AI
LIVING REPORT · REPORT NO. 5
v5 · 2026-08-20
CURRENT

Microsoft $481.1 -0.66%

stock · data as of 2026-08-20 · computed, sourced, never predicted
live intraday view · chart by TradingView · the document below is computed from end-of-day data
00Executive summary

Microsoft closed at $481.1 (-0.66% on the day). Over the last month it is +23.25%, over the last year -4.87%. It sits 10.69% below the 52-week high of $538.66 (52-week low $352.83).

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

latest change — $484.31 → $481.1 (-0.66% since v4)5 invalidation conditions stated — section 09
01What changed — v5 vs v4
  • · $484.31 → $481.1 (-0.66% since v4)
02Technicals

Microsoft closed at $481.1 (-0.66% on the day). Over the last month it is +23.25%, over the last year -4.87%. It sits 10.69% below the 52-week high of $538.66 (52-week low $352.83).

Trend: price is ABOVE the 200-day average ($430.38) and above the 50-day ($418.13) — trend strength (R², 90d) 0.09, direction up.

Volatility: 30-day realized vol is 49.12% annualized, the 97th percentile of this asset's own history — a loud tape. Short-horizon behavior leans momentum.

Structure (90 days): range $352.83 – $506.06; the most-touched level is $391.67 (20 touches).

1W
-3.18%
1M
+23.25%
1Y
-4.87%
FROM 52W HIGH
-10.69%
03Relative performance

Relative: outperformed the S&P 500 by 19.11% over the last month (-25.11% over the year); 90-day beta 1.1, correlation 0.34.

1M VS S&P 500
+19.11%
1Y RELATIVE
-25.11%
BETA 90D
1.1
CORR 90D
0.34
04Risk

Risk: the deepest drawdown of the last year was 34.5% (2025-10-28 → 2026-06-25); price now sits 10.69% below the trailing-year peak. Worst single session: -9.99% (2026-01-29).

MAX DD 1Y
-34.5%
FROM 1Y PEAK
-10.69%
BEST DAY
+15.51%
WORST DAY
-9.99%
05Fundamentals

Fundamentals (latest annual filing, 2026-06-30): revenue $331.84B (+17.79% YoY), net income $133.75B (40.31% margin). Trailing P/E on annual diluted EPS: 26.8. Source: SEC EDGAR.

Filed record: latest 10-K covers the period ending 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-29 (22 days ago). Next annual filing estimated around 2027-07-29 from this issuer's own cadence — an estimate, not a date.

REVENUE
$331.84B
REVENUE YOY
+17.79%
NET INCOME
$133.75B
NET MARGIN
40.31%
EPS (DILUTED)
$17.95
TRAILING P/E
26.8

latest 10-K · period 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-07-29 on EDGAR ↗ · next annual est. ~2027-07-29

06Sentiment

The tape leans constructive: 53% of the last 90 sessions closed up, direction up, short-horizon behavior momentum.

Positioning: 1.66 standard deviations above the 90-day mean, 10.69% from the all-time high of this series.

computed from price action, not from opinions or positioning surveys

07Consensus read

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

The 1-month move (+23.25%) runs against the 1-year trend (-4.87%).

Trading 10.69% below the 52-week high.

analyst-rating feeds are licensed; this section reads the market's own positioning instead

08In the air — headlines, not causes
09What would change this read
  • · The trend read flips on a daily close below the 200-day average at $430.38.
  • · The volatility read changes if realized vol leaves its current regime (now the 97th percentile).
  • · The relative read flips if the 1-month spread vs the S&P 500 (now +19.11%) changes sign.
  • · A new filing supersedes the fundamental read — the latest one is 22 days old.
  • · The fundamental read updates on the next 10-K/10-Q filing — annual figures can be three quarters stale between filings.
  • · nothing here is a prediction or advice — it is a computed description of end-of-day data
$481.1-0.66%CONSTRUCTIVE