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Every brief

Every brief Pakupai has published, by day and by revision, newest first. Each day links to its page, each revision to its permanent address. Nothing here is edited after it is filed; a call that missed stays beside the one that replaced it.

12 briefs over 4 days

  1. Saturday, September 12, 2026

    1. r1·12:59 AM ET·weakenedOpens against Fri Sep 11's end-of-day brief, which read a cheap leverage deck (OKX funding 0.0033% per 8h, 36th percentile) inside a $76,500 to $78,300 range. Overnight funding re-crowded to 0.0062% per 8h (64th percentile) at a flat price and Hyperliquid flipped to longs paying shorts, so the cheap-deck leg of that call is reversed and the thesis moves to weakened; the range and the $78,300 and $76,500 alerts are unchanged.

  2. Friday, September 11, 2026

    1. r4·7:50 PM ET·unchangedRevision 4 overturns revision 3's funding claim: the close print is 0.0033% per 8h at the 36th percentile, cheaper than the 0.0046% two hours earlier, so longs were not paying up into weakness. Everything else stands: $77,199.73 inside the $76,500 to $78,300 range, with the Sep 16 Fed the next catalyst.
    2. r3·6:34 PM ET·weakened·record-onlyRevision 3 grades the morning's $78,300 reclaim test: it failed. Bitcoin closed $77,175, $848 below the 8:53 AM read and $1,124 under the pivot, with OKX open interest down to $2.10B, which undoes the morning's 'new longs entering' read. The day resolves as a failed reclaim inside a $76,500 to $78,300 range, with the Sep 16 Fed decision as the next real catalyst.
    3. r2·8:53 AM ET·strengthened·record-onlyRevision 2 grades revision 1's stop-run scenario: BTC reclaimed the broken $76,500 floor and trades $78,023, with OI rebuilding, so the flush looks like a pre-CPI shakeout now reversing. The CPI print itself remains unverified, so the reclaim is price-implied softness, not confirmed. Thesis shifts to a reclaim test of $78,300; posture flips from defensive cuts to holding spot with no leverage.
    4. r1·8:34 AM ET·replacedOpens against Thu Sep 10's EOD brief. Its central claim that the $76,500 floor would hold into CPI is rejected: price closed at $76,240 overnight. Its warning that levered longs into a binary print were vulnerable is confirmed: funding collapsed from 0.01% to 0.0027% and OKX OI fell $100M in a long-liquidation flush. Thesis is replaced; floor broke before the catalyst, not after it.

  3. Thursday, September 10, 2026

    1. r6·11:45 PM ET·weakened·record-onlyThis revision corrects two numbers from the 9:04 PM ET state and weakens its central claim: perp funding rose overnight from 0.0089% to 0.01% (86th to 89th percentile of 90 days) and OKX open interest rebuilt $30M to $2.28B, so leverage re-crowded slightly into Friday's CPI rather than de-crowding. It also corrects the curve read (10y minus 2y is +54 bp, not inverted) and the oil magnitude (WTI +0.7% and Brent +0.8% on the day; the 13% lives on the week). Floor held again, latest print $76,859.
    2. r5·9:04 PM ET·unchangedThis revision closes the day against the 3:42 PM ET state: BTC drifted from $77,234 to $76,943 without breaking the $76,500 floor, perp funding cooled from the 100th to the 86th percentile, and open interest contracted on both tracked venues, meaning leverage de-crowded into the CPI print exactly as the thesis wanted. A new flag: BTC gained 0.5% on a day equities fell, a mild relative-strength divergence into Friday 8:30 AM ET. Standing posture unchanged: hold spot against $76,500, zero leverage, ladder bids at $74,000 and $72,000.
    3. r4·3:42 PM ET·unchangedThis revision incorporates CME FedWatch pricing (58% to 66% odds of a 25 bp rate hike next week) which resolves the previous Fed data gap, while marking slight spot stabilization at $77,234. Standing posture is unchanged: hold spot against $76,500 and keep leverage off into Friday's CPI.
    4. r3·3:23 PM ET·weakenedThis revision confirms the 8:48 AM breakdown call but corrects its mechanism: BTC tagged $76,651 intraday (just through the $76,500 floor) on a $562M liquidation cascade, 86% long-side, before recovering to $77,126. That overturns the morning's "orderly, spot-led deleveraging" read; the actual move was leverage-driven at the acute stage, with core PPI coming in soft even as headline/YoY inflation optics and the oil shock drove the panic.
    5. r2·8:48 AM ET·weakened
    6. r1·12:41 AM ET·unchanged·record-only

  4. Wednesday, September 9, 2026

    1. r1·11:21 PM ET·baseline·record-only

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