trump turns up the heat on warsh as rate hike looms, ten-year sits at 4.77%
The ten-year yield sat unmoved at 4.77% — no fresh print since Wednesday — and the dollar closed at 99.16 in a session that was a shrug for rates and equities. Then, after the bell, Trump turned his heat on Fed Chair Warsh, calling for a halt to the tightening three days before the September decision.
- the curve
- +0.43 pp 2s10s
- the dollar
- −0.5% 30d · −0.9% 90d
- rates
- 10y 4.77% · +14 bp 30d
- btc vs 200d
- $79,661 · +14.4% vs 200d
- spx vs 200d
- 7,719 · +8.1% vs 200d
- gold
- $4,430 · +4.3% 30d
- oil
- $91.48 · +21.6% 30d
- japan 10y
- 2.966% · +12 bp 30d
- the front
- CPI in 6d · 2026-09-11
5/7 above trend · dollar falling · CPI in 6d · 10y 4.77%
conditions, computed from our own closes — never a forecast
what landed — 193 sourced events, with the numbers
- cnbc economy ↗news
Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Why crypto experts say buying and holding bitcoin easily beats trying to time the market
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Dollar-backed stablecoins can push local currencies lower, Bank of Korea study finds
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Scams by fake job recruiters are getting smarter, and AI is making it worse
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Humanoid robots could upend life as we know it — if only they had better brains
surprise— - cnbc economy ↗news
From ‘mystery vacations’ to hostels, budget travelers get thrifty as prices rise
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
British investor thought he lost $2,000 in bitcoin in 2012. He just recovered $4.5 million
surprise— - oil supply ↗news
Iran War Upends IEA’s Oil Market Outlook as Global Supply and Demand to Contract in 2026
surprise—
all 193 — 185 more
- cointelegraph ↗news
Here’s what happened in crypto today
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Poland upholds crypto bill veto as Zondacrypto scandal widens
surprise— Sanctions or illusion? US claim on Iran’s financial lifeline
surprise—- cointelegraph ↗news
Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $3.8B in strongest three-week stretch of 2026
surprise— - central banks ↗news
Fed's Waller channels his inner John Lennon with a plea to 'give disinflation a chance'
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
XRP Ledger has fewer active accounts than last year, but bigger trades and more value
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Southeast Asia’s crypto funding rebounds to $680 million as investors focus on mature firms
surprise— - carry trade ↗news
Yen Surges 5 Yen in Two Days, Breaks 155 Level—Carry Trade Unwind Warning Sounds
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Will a data center hurt your home’s value? Research says no. Sellers disagree.
surprise— - oil supply ↗news
PERSPECTIVE: UAE Exit Strips OPEC of Clout, Risks Bitter Price War: Bousso
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Micron is doubling down on AI memory chips. It could pay off big for investors.
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Bloom Energy was just named to the S&P 500. These other stocks are also joining.
surprise— EU warning raises risks for firms dealing with Iran, ex-Treasury official says
surprise—- cointelegraph ↗news
Surprise nonfarm payrolls print sends Bitcoin back below 80K
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close lower as jobs data raise chances of Fed rate hike
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Pineapple Financial puts $1B in mortgage records on Injective
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
FinCEN ties $13B in crypto scams to non-US operations
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
U.S. stocks down in final hour as jobs data raise chances of interest-rate hike
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
Trump’s threat to stop trade unless there’s a rate cut risks U.S. economic shock
surprise— - cnbc economy ↗news
Women accounted for almost all of job gains in August. Here's why
surprise— - cnbc finance ↗news
White House has vetted candidates for key CFTC vacancies, sources tell CNBC. It's unclear if they will be filled
surprise— - bbc ↗news
Trump calls for interest rate cut after jobs figures raise hike bets
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Crypto Biz: AI took a back seat when Bitcoin started climbing
surprise— - cnbc economy ↗news
U.S. payrolls rose 162,000 in August, much more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1%
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
QuFi launches post-quantum verification platform with Bitcoin testnet proof
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
US law enforcement group moves to ‘neutral’ position on CLARITY Act
surprise— - oil supply ↗news
Rosneft CEO China Calls The Shots in Oil Markets, Not OPEC
surprise— - central banks ↗news
Vance urges the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, sparking a confrontation between the White House and the central bank.
surprise— - marketwatch ↗news
S&P 500 changes are coming soon. These stocks could be named to the index today.
surprise— - carry trade ↗news
Yen's changing fortunes might finally be spooking the bears
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement actions with United Texas Bank, Quontic Bank Acquisition Corp., and Quontic Bank Holdings Corp.
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Robinhood isn't backing down after AMC CEO demands halt to stock tokens
surprise— - cnbc finance ↗news
Bitcoin heads for third winning week in a row as macro pressures mount
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCAD
Ivey PMI
forecast 56.2previous 55.1surprise— - bls ↗statement
Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD
Employment Change
forecast 15.1Kprevious 75.1Ksurprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD
Unemployment Rate
forecast 6.4%previous 6.4%surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
forecast 0.3%previous 0.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
Non-Farm Employment Change
forecast 55Kprevious -23Ksurprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
Unemployment Rate
forecast 4.1%previous 4.1%surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Philip R. Lane: Diversity at the European Central Bank
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Retail Sales m/m
forecast 0.3%previous -0.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactGBP
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
surprise— - boe ↗statement
The institutional form of independent central banks: from history to contemporary challenges - speech by Andrew Bailey
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Construction PMI
forecast 45.8previous 44.7surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Retail Sales m/m
forecast 0.2%previous -0.1%surprise— - boj ↗statement
Financial Results of Japan's Banks for Fiscal 2025
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Factory Orders m/m
forecast 0.3%previous 3.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Household Spending y/y
forecast -1.6%previous -3.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
MPC Member Pill Speaks
surprise— - boe ↗statement
Homophones – Remarks by Huw Pill
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Natural Gas Storage
forecast 30Bprevious 15Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
ISM Services PMI
forecast 54.2previous 54.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Final Services PMI
forecast 56.8previous 56.8surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCAD
Labor Productivity q/q
forecast 0.7%previous -0.5%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCAD
Trade Balance
forecast 3.2Bprevious 3.9Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
FOMC Member Waller Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q
forecast 1.4%previous 1.4%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q
forecast 1.3%previous 1.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Trade Balance
forecast -89.4Bprevious -73.3Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Unemployment Claims
forecast 205Kprevious 203Ksurprise— - fed ↗statement
Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Challenger Job Cuts y/y
previous -46.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
PPI m/m
forecast 1.2%previous -0.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
French 10-y Bond Auction
previous 3.86|3.7surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
previous 3.54|2.4surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Final Services PMI
forecast 52.8previous 52.8surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Final Services PMI
forecast 51.7previous 51.7surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Final Services PMI
forecast 48.5previous 48.5surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
French Final Services PMI
forecast 48.4previous 48.4surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Services PMI
forecast 53.6previous 52.5surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Spanish Services PMI
forecast 59.0previous 58.3surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
GDP q/q
forecast 1.7%previous 0.7%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
CPI m/m
forecast 0.0%previous -0.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
30-y Bond Auction
previous 3.94|3.9surprise— - boj ↗statement
Notice of the "Meeting on Market Operations"
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
RatingDog Services PMI
forecast 50.6previous 50.4surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Goods Trade Balance
forecast 1.52Bprevious 1.93Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
RBA Assist Gov Jones Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
previous -3.9%surprise— - boj ↗statement
Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances (Projections for Sept.)
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
Overseas Trade Index q/q
forecast -2.1%previous -2.0%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
RBNZ Gov Breman Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Beige Book
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD
BOC Press Conference
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Crude Oil Inventories
forecast -0.4Mprevious 0.1Msurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Factory Orders m/m
forecast 0.7%previous -0.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD
BOC Rate Statement
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD
Overnight Rate
forecast 2.25%previous 2.25%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
forecast 47Kprevious 44Ksurprise— - boj ↗statement
Collateral Accepted by the Bank of Japan (End of Aug.)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Spanish Unemployment Change
forecast 15.4Kprevious 19.5Ksurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
French Gov Budget Balance
previous -106.8Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD
RBNZ Press Conference
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD
Official Cash Rate
forecast 2.75%previous 2.50%surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD
RBNZ Rate Statement
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactAUD
GDP q/q
forecast 0.3%previous 0.3%surprise— - boj ↗statement
Bank of Japan Accounts (August 31)
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Monetary Base y/y
forecast -13.5%previous -13.8%surprise— - boj ↗statement
Monetary Base (Aug.)
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
Building Consents m/m
previous -3.6%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Boris Vujčić: Listening to households: expectations, behaviour and monetary policy
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
GDT Price Index
previous 2.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAll
G20 Meetings
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Omdia Total Vehicle Sales
forecast 16.3Mprevious 16.3Msurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
forecast 46.2previous 45.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Construction Spending m/m
forecast 0.0%previous -0.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
ISM Manufacturing PMI
forecast 55.2previous 55.6surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
ISM Manufacturing Prices
forecast 70.5previous 71.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
JOLTS Job Openings
forecast 7.33Mprevious 7.36Msurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 53.3previous 53.2surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCAD
Manufacturing PMI
previous 53.5surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
FOMC Member Barr Speaks
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Barr, Unlocking Opportunities for Workers and Entrepreneurs with a Criminal Record
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Buba President Nagel Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
forecast 2.5%previous 2.5%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
forecast 3.3%previous 2.9%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
forecast 0.5%previous 0.2%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Unemployment Rate
forecast 6.3%previous 6.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
forecast 5.6%previous 5.7%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 51.5previous 51.5surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
M4 Money Supply m/m
forecast 0.9%previous 0.8%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Mortgage Approvals
forecast 59Kprevious 58Ksurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Net Lending to Individuals m/m
forecast 7.2Bprevious 9.5Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 52.8previous 52.8surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 54.1previous 54.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
French Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 51.5previous 51.5surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Manufacturing PMI
forecast 51.4previous 51.3surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
Manufacturing PMI
forecast 54.1previous 53.2surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Spanish Manufacturing PMI
forecast 50.3previous 50.2surprise— - boj ↗statement
Bond Market Survey (August 2026)
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
Retail Sales y/y
forecast 1.6%previous 1.5%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Commodity Prices y/y
previous 15.4%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Retail Sales m/m
forecast 0.4%previous -0.7%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Nationwide HPI m/m
forecast 0.1%previous 0.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Consumer Confidence
forecast 35.3previous 34.9surprise— - boj ↗statement
Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances and Market Operations (Aug.)
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
10-y Bond Auction
previous 2.84|2.6surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
forecast 51.0previous 50.9surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Building Approvals m/m
forecast -4.7%previous 7.2%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Current Account
forecast -29.7Bprevious -27.1Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 55.1previous 55.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Capital Spending q/y
forecast -0.2%previous 0.0%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
BRC Shop Price Index y/y
forecast 0.9%previous 0.9%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAll
G20 Meetings
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Quarterly Schedule of Outright Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (Competitive Auction Method) (July-September 2026) (Schedule Updates)
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Bank Holiday
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Prelim CPI m/m
forecast 0.3%previous 0.8%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Housing Starts y/y
forecast 7.5%previous 18.6%surprise— - boj ↗statement
Payment and Settlement Statistics (July)
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Company Operating Profits q/q
forecast 2.0%previous -1.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Private Sector Credit m/m
forecast 0.7%previous 0.8%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
Manufacturing PMI
forecast 49.5previous 49.2surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
Non-Manufacturing PMI
forecast 49.5previous 49.0surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
MI Inflation Gauge m/m
previous 1.0%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
ANZ Business Confidence
previous 56.1surprise— - boj ↗statement
Flow of Funds (Overview of Japan, US, and the Euro area)(1st Quarter 2026)
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Prelim Industrial Production m/m
forecast -0.7%previous 1.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Retail Sales y/y
forecast 3.2%previous 0.5%surprise— - boj ↗statement
Average Contract Interest Rates on Loans and Discounts (July)
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAll
G20 Meetings
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Isabel Schnabel: Central banks on-chain
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Warsh, In Our Time
surprise— - boj ↗statement
(BOJ Review) Expanding and Revising the Application of Hedonic Quality Adjustment in the Corporate Goods Price Index
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico
surprise— - boe ↗statement
Delay to the November 2026 RTGS standards release
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Meeting of 22-23 July 2026
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Piero Cipollone: From vision to delivery: building Europe’s tokenised financial market
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Services Producer Price Index (July)
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on July 20 and July 29, 2026
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Indicators for Core CPI
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
Piero Cipollone: Interview with ilsussidiario.net
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Financial System Report Annex "Use and Risk Management of Generative AI by Japanese Financial Institutions"
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Bank of Japan Accounts (August 20)
surprise— - boj ↗statement
Statistics on Securities Financing Transactions in Japan
surprise— - ecb ↗statement
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc. and announces termination of enforcement action with Deutsche Bank AG, DB USA Corporation, and Deutsche Bank AG New Yor
surprise—
The pressure lands on a Fed leadership that has already signalled patience: Waller pleaded to ‘give disinflation a chance’ on Wednesday, and the break below 100 in the dollar opens the door to a lower ten-year. Every time the dollar has closed below 100 for the first time in years, the ten-year yield was lower a month later [AN1]. A chair under public assault cannot tighten into a growth scare without provoking a political crisis. Markets will front-run a pause, taking the long end down as the dollar loses credibility as a store of value.
the 2 events this stands on
Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms
Fed's Waller channels his inner John Lennon with a plea to 'give disinflation a chance'
The Warsh Fed is not the Powell Fed of 2019 — it knows only the loss of credibility from bending to a tweet. Oil’s 21.6% surge in thirty days pushes the core CPI print in six days higher, and each time crude has posted a 30-day sprint of that magnitude, the ten-year yield was higher a month later [AN2]. A central bank staring at an Iran-driven supply shock cannot afford to pause. It hikes, and the 4.77% ten-year is the floor, not the ceiling, as the inflation impulse feeds through the front end.
the 2 events this stands on
Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms
Iran War Upends IEA’s Oil Market Outlook as Global Supply and Demand to Contract in 2026
The dollar has spent most of the last eighteen months fluctuating below 100, with the current stretch starting on August 13 and pushing it to 99.16 by yesterday. Over the same period, the ten-year yield climbed from 3.95% to 4.77% and oil rose from $70.38 to $91.48. The picture is one of a falling dollar accompanied by rising rates and commodity prices.
what the picture is drawn from — every close, stretch and line, in words
- dxy: 102 on 2024-01-02 → 99.160 on 2026-09-04
- us10y: 3.950 on 2024-01-02 → 4.770 on 2026-09-03
- oil: 70.380 on 2024-01-02 → 91.480 on 2026-09-04
- shaded 2025-04-11 → 2025-04-14: dxy 99.780 → 99.640 · dxy 99.780 → 99.640 (−0.14%)
- shaded 2025-04-16 → 2025-04-30: dxy 99.380 → 99.470 · dxy 99.380 → 99.470 (+0.09%)
- shaded 2025-05-05 → 2025-05-07: dxy 99.830 → 99.610 · dxy 99.830 → 99.610 (−0.22%)
- shaded 2025-05-21 → 2025-07-30: dxy 99.560 → 99.940 · dxy 99.560 → 99.940 (+0.38%)
- shaded 2025-08-01 → 2025-11-03: dxy 98.690 → 99.870 · dxy 98.690 → 99.870 (+1.20%)
- shaded 2025-11-06 → 2025-11-18: dxy 99.730 → 99.550 · dxy 99.730 → 99.550 (−0.18%)
- shaded 2025-11-25 → 2026-03-12: dxy 99.660 → 99.740 · dxy 99.660 → 99.740 (+0.08%)
- shaded 2026-03-16 → 2026-03-17: dxy 99.710 → 99.580 · dxy 99.710 → 99.580 (−0.13%)
- shaded 2026-03-19 → 2026-03-26: dxy 99.230 → 99.900 · dxy 99.230 → 99.900 (+0.68%)
- shaded 2026-03-31 → 2026-04-01: dxy 99.960 → 99.650 · dxy 99.960 → 99.650 (−0.31%)
- shaded 2026-04-06 → 2026-06-04: dxy 99.980 → 99.410 · dxy 99.980 → 99.410 (−0.57%)
- shaded 2026-06-09 → 2026-06-16: dxy 99.910 → 99.540 · dxy 99.910 → 99.540 (−0.37%)
- shaded 2026-07-31 → 2026-08-11: dxy 99.800 → 99.820 · dxy 99.800 → 99.820 (+0.02%)
- shaded 2026-08-13 → 2026-09-04: dxy 99.960 → 99.160 · dxy 99.960 → 99.160 (−0.80%)
- level dxy at 100 — dollar 100
- level us10y at 4.770 — current 10y 4.77%
Both the case for a lower ten-year on dollar weakness and the case for a higher ten-year on oil's sprint came up thin against our own closes. The dollar below 100 history matched only eight times and the yield was higher a month later most of the time [AN1]. Oil's 20%+ sprints matched 19 times and twelve of them saw yields rise [AN2]. Neither count is thick enough to carry the argument, so the day's read on the ten-year lacks historical backing.
Every time the dollar has closed below 100 for the first time in years, the ten-year yield was lower a month later [AN1].
8 times in our own history; 2 of them went that way, median +0.7% a month later — too few to say either way.
the chart, the windows and the dates it was met on
| window | n | hits | hit rate | median | 90% ci |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 8 | 4 | 50% | −0.30% | 25–75% |
| 1m | 8 | 6 | 75% | +0.69% | 45–90% |
met on · 2023-07-13 · 2025-04-11 · 2025-05-21 · 2025-08-01 · 2025-11-06 · 2026-03-16 · 2026-06-09 · 2026-07-31
Oil’s 21.6% surge in thirty days pushes the core CPI print in six days higher, and each time crude has posted a 30-day sprint of that magnitude, the ten-year yield was higher a month later [AN2].
19 times in our own history; 12 of them went that way, median +3.7% a month later — too few to say either way.
the chart, the windows and the dates it was met on
| window | n | hits | hit rate | median | 90% ci |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 20 | 12 | 60% | +1.59% | 42–76% |
| 1m | 19 | 12 | 63% | +3.69% | 44–78% |
met on · 2016-03-02 · 2016-04-04 · 2016-05-11 · 2016-12-27 · 2019-02-07 · 2020-05-12 · 2020-07-07 · 2020-12-10 · 2021-01-14 · 2021-02-22 · 2021-07-02 · 2021-10-04 · 2022-01-12 · 2022-02-11 · 2022-03-21 · 2022-06-07 · 2023-08-09 · 2025-06-13 · 2026-03-02 · 2026-08-17
Fed and BOJ odds: no free source — only what the operator pastes, marked as a claim
At 4.77%, the machine's call on the ten-year is up over the next month, though the historical precedents are too thin to lean on either direction with any confidence.
never a position, never advice — a lean with a probability, resolved on its date
every call this day wrote down — 30 in all, each with its own date
- spx1dflatp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- spx1wupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- spx1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- nasdaq1dflatp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- nasdaq1wupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- nasdaq1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- btc1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- btc1wupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- btc1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- dxy1dflatp .52pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- dxy1wdownp .52pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- dxy1mdownp .52pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- us10y1dflatp .51pendingresolves 2026-09-04
- us10y1wupp .51pendingresolves 2026-09-10
- us10y1mupp .51pendingresolves 2026-10-02
- gold1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- gold1wdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- gold1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- oil1dupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- oil1wupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- oil1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- eth1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- eth1wupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- eth1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- eurusd1dflatp .52pendingresolves 2026-09-05
- eurusd1wupp .52pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- eurusd1mupp .52pendingresolves 2026-10-03
- us2y1dflatp .52pendingresolves 2026-09-04
- us2y1wupp .52pendingresolves 2026-09-10
- us2y1mupp .52pendingresolves 2026-10-02
| asset | horizon | n | hits | hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| spx | 1d | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| nasdaq | 1d | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| btc | 1d | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| dxy | 1d | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| us10y | 1d | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| gold | 1d | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| oil | 1d | 1 | 1 | 100% |