PAKUP·AI
2026-09-0401the open

5/6 above trend · dollar falling · CPI in 7d · 10y 4.79%

the curve
+0.40 pp 2s10s
the dollar
−1.7% 30d · −0.1% 90d
rates
10y 4.79% · +9 bp 30d
btc vs 200d
$81,270 · +16.8% vs 200d
gold
$4,492 · +1.4% 30d
oil
$91.48 · +6.2% 30d
japan 10y
2.966% · +12 bp 30d
the front
CPI in 7d · 2026-09-11

conditions, computed from our own closes — never a forecast

what landed — 193 sourced events, with the numbers
  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement actions with United Texas Bank, Quontic Bank Acquisition Corp., and Quontic Bank Holdings Corp.

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    AMC CEO tells Robinhood to stop issuing stock token as industry executives weigh in

    surprise
  • bbc news

    Surprisingly strong US jobs figures fuel rate rise bets

    surprise
  • cnbc finance news

    Bitcoin heads for third winning week in a row as macro pressures mount

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    From warning to listing: UK’s largest retail investment platform opens access to crypto ETNs

    surprise
  • cnbc economy news

    U.S. payrolls rose 162,000 in August, much more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1%

    surprise
  • cnbc economy news

    The big business of personal protection: How private security became a $50 billion industry

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    U.S. Sheriff’s association shifts opposition stance to Clarity Act to 'neutral'

    surprise
all 193185 more
  • forexfactoryreleaseCAD

    Ivey PMI

    forecast 56.2previous 55.1surprise
  • the dollar news

    Yen Strength Sends Won-Dollar Rate Lower

    surprise
  • marketwatch news

    Tesla’s stock falls as Cybercab launch lands with a thud

    surprise
  • marketwatch news

    S&P 500, Dow open lower but Nasdaq edges up as jobs data raises rate-hike odds

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Revolut, OpenReserve get preliminary US bank approval with crypto plans

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Here’s what happened in crypto today

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Token buybacks are booming. But are they good for crypto projects?

    surprise
  • bbc news

    UK petrol prices hit highest level since Iran war began

    surprise
  • the long end news

    'No Increase in Interest Rates Anytime This Year': JP Morgan vs. Markets Pricing 60% Hike Odds

    surprise
  • marketwatch news

    U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, unemployment rate stays at 4.1%

    surprise
  • bls statement

    Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    U.S. added stronger than expected 162,000 jobs in August as labor market bounced back

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD

    Employment Change

    forecast 15.1Kprevious 75.1Ksurprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD

    Unemployment Rate

    forecast 6.4%previous 6.4%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Average Hourly Earnings m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous 0.1%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Non-Farm Employment Change

    forecast 55Kprevious -23Ksurprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Unemployment Rate

    forecast 4.1%previous 4.1%surprise
  • bbc news

    Xbox caps cloud gaming at 15 hours a month for Game Pass subscribers

    surprise
  • marketwatch news

    Economic calendar: employment report and unemployment rate

    surprise
  • oil supply news

    China, Not OPEC, Calls Shots on Global Energy Markets – Sechin

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Kalshi US visits soar 1,500% as regulatory pressure mounts

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    We checked 6 years of bitcoin data. The NFP report isn't big price mover

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Trezor says data breach affects another 67K US customers

    surprise
  • carry trade news

    Yen's changing fortunes might finally be spooking the bears

    surprise
  • positioning news

    ANALYSIS-Yen's changing fortunes might finally be spooking the bears

    surprise
  • bbc news

    US diesel prices hit an all-time-high

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    South Korean regulators introduce tokenized securities roadmap

    surprise
  • bbc news

    Stock up on food to prepare for extreme weather, minister says

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    Zcash jumps 20% to landmark $1,000 level as short sellers lose $34 million

    surprise
  • oil supply news

    Iran War Upends IEA’s Oil Market Outlook as Global Supply and Demand to Contract in 2026

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    Bitcoin clears $81,000 as privacy coins lead a broad crypto rally

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    AMC chief criticizes Robinhood’s tokenized stock plan

    surprise
  • oil supply news

    The head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, announced that China had intercepted OPEC's initiative in the oil market

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    IMF confirms El Salvador’s bitcoin growth was funded by private donations, not public money

    surprise
  • coindesk news

    South Korea targets February 2027 rollout for full tokenized securities market

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Philip R. Lane: Diversity at the European Central Bank

    surprise
  • the dollar news

    Foreign Investors Return with NT$56.2 Billion as Taiwan Stocks Hit Record High; Taiwan Dollar Surges NT$0.125 to Close at NT$31.63

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Retail Sales m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous -0.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactGBP

    BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

    surprise
  • boe statement

    The institutional form of independent central banks: from history to contemporary challenges - speech by Andrew Bailey

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Construction PMI

    forecast 45.8previous 44.7surprise
  • central banks news

    Lack of US Fed forward guidance keeps markets guessing

    surprise
  • the long end news

    Why bond markets suddenly matter again

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Retail Sales m/m

    forecast 0.2%previous -0.1%surprise
  • oil supply news

    China emerges as oil market ‘stabiliser’ as OPEC influence fades: Russia

    surprise
  • cointelegraph news

    Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $731M, highest since January as BTC reclaims $80K

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Financial Results of Japan's Banks for Fiscal 2025

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Factory Orders m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous 3.1%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Household Spending y/y

    forecast -1.6%previous -3.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    FOMC Member Hammack Speaks

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    MPC Member Pill Speaks

    surprise
  • boe statement

    Homophones – Remarks by Huw Pill

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Natural Gas Storage

    forecast 30Bprevious 15Bsurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    ISM Services PMI

    forecast 54.2previous 54.1surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Final Services PMI

    forecast 56.8previous 56.8surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCAD

    Labor Productivity q/q

    forecast 0.7%previous -0.5%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCAD

    Trade Balance

    forecast 3.2Bprevious 3.9Bsurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    FOMC Member Waller Speaks

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q

    forecast 1.4%previous 1.4%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q

    forecast 1.3%previous 1.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Trade Balance

    forecast -89.4Bprevious -73.3Bsurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Unemployment Claims

    forecast 205Kprevious 203Ksurprise
  • fed statement

    Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Challenger Job Cuts y/y

    previous -46.1%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    PPI m/m

    forecast 1.2%previous -0.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    French 10-y Bond Auction

    previous 3.86|3.7surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

    previous 3.54|2.4surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Final Services PMI

    forecast 52.8previous 52.8surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Final Services PMI

    forecast 51.7previous 51.7surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Final Services PMI

    forecast 48.5previous 48.5surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    French Final Services PMI

    forecast 48.4previous 48.4surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Services PMI

    forecast 53.6previous 52.5surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Spanish Services PMI

    forecast 59.0previous 58.3surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    GDP q/q

    forecast 1.7%previous 0.7%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    CPI m/m

    forecast 0.0%previous -0.1%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    30-y Bond Auction

    previous 3.94|3.9surprise
  • boj statement

    Notice of the "Meeting on Market Operations"

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    RatingDog Services PMI

    forecast 50.6previous 50.4surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    Goods Trade Balance

    forecast 1.52Bprevious 1.93Bsurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    RBA Assist Gov Jones Speaks

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseNZD

    ANZ Commodity Prices m/m

    previous -3.9%surprise
  • boj statement

    Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances (Projections for Sept.)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseNZD

    Overseas Trade Index q/q

    forecast -2.1%previous -2.0%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseNZD

    RBNZ Gov Breman Speaks

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Beige Book

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD

    BOC Press Conference

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Crude Oil Inventories

    forecast -0.4Mprevious 0.1Msurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Factory Orders m/m

    forecast 0.7%previous -0.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD

    BOC Rate Statement

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD

    Overnight Rate

    forecast 2.25%previous 2.25%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

    forecast 47Kprevious 44Ksurprise
  • boj statement

    Collateral Accepted by the Bank of Japan (End of Aug.)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Spanish Unemployment Change

    forecast 15.4Kprevious 19.5Ksurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    French Gov Budget Balance

    previous -106.8Bsurprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD

    RBNZ Press Conference

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD

    Official Cash Rate

    forecast 2.75%previous 2.50%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD

    RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD

    RBNZ Rate Statement

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactAUD

    GDP q/q

    forecast 0.3%previous 0.3%surprise
  • boj statement

    Bank of Japan Accounts (August 31)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Monetary Base y/y

    forecast -13.5%previous -13.8%surprise
  • boj statement

    Monetary Base (Aug.)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseNZD

    Building Consents m/m

    previous -3.6%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Boris Vujčić: Listening to households: expectations, behaviour and monetary policy

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseNZD

    GDT Price Index

    previous 2.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAll

    G20 Meetings

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Omdia Total Vehicle Sales

    forecast 16.3Mprevious 16.3Msurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism

    forecast 46.2previous 45.1surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Construction Spending m/m

    forecast 0.0%previous -0.1%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    ISM Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 55.2previous 55.6surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    ISM Manufacturing Prices

    forecast 70.5previous 71.1surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    JOLTS Job Openings

    forecast 7.33Mprevious 7.36Msurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 53.3previous 53.2surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCAD

    Manufacturing PMI

    previous 53.5surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    FOMC Member Barr Speaks

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Barr, Unlocking Opportunities for Workers and Entrepreneurs with a Criminal Record

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Buba President Nagel Speaks

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

    forecast 2.5%previous 2.5%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    CPI Flash Estimate y/y

    forecast 3.3%previous 2.9%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Prelim CPI m/m

    forecast 0.5%previous 0.2%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Unemployment Rate

    forecast 6.3%previous 6.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate

    forecast 5.6%previous 5.7%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 51.5previous 51.5surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    M4 Money Supply m/m

    forecast 0.9%previous 0.8%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Mortgage Approvals

    forecast 59Kprevious 58Ksurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Net Lending to Individuals m/m

    forecast 7.2Bprevious 9.5Bsurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 52.8previous 52.8surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 54.1previous 54.1surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    French Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 51.5previous 51.5surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 51.4previous 51.3surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 54.1previous 53.2surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Spanish Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 50.3previous 50.2surprise
  • boj statement

    Bond Market Survey (August 2026)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    Retail Sales y/y

    forecast 1.6%previous 1.5%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    Commodity Prices y/y

    previous 15.4%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Retail Sales m/m

    forecast 0.4%previous -0.7%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Nationwide HPI m/m

    forecast 0.1%previous 0.1%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Consumer Confidence

    forecast 35.3previous 34.9surprise
  • boj statement

    Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances and Market Operations (Aug.)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    10-y Bond Auction

    previous 2.84|2.6surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    RatingDog Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 51.0previous 50.9surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    Building Approvals m/m

    forecast -4.7%previous 7.2%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    Current Account

    forecast -29.7Bprevious -27.1Bsurprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 55.1previous 55.1surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Capital Spending q/y

    forecast -0.2%previous 0.0%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    BRC Shop Price Index y/y

    forecast 0.9%previous 0.9%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAll

    G20 Meetings

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Quarterly Schedule of Outright Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (Competitive Auction Method) (July-September 2026) (Schedule Updates)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Bank Holiday

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Prelim CPI m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous 0.8%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Housing Starts y/y

    forecast 7.5%previous 18.6%surprise
  • boj statement

    Payment and Settlement Statistics (July)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    Company Operating Profits q/q

    forecast 2.0%previous -1.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    Private Sector Credit m/m

    forecast 0.7%previous 0.8%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 49.5previous 49.2surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    Non-Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 49.5previous 49.0surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    MI Inflation Gauge m/m

    previous 1.0%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseNZD

    ANZ Business Confidence

    previous 56.1surprise
  • boj statement

    Flow of Funds (Overview of Japan, US, and the Euro area)(1st Quarter 2026)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Prelim Industrial Production m/m

    forecast -0.7%previous 1.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Retail Sales y/y

    forecast 3.2%previous 0.5%surprise
  • boj statement

    Average Contract Interest Rates on Loans and Discounts (July)

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAll

    G20 Meetings

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Isabel Schnabel: Central banks on-chain

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Warsh, In Our Time

    surprise
  • boj statement

    (BOJ Review) Expanding and Revising the Application of Hedonic Quality Adjustment in the Corporate Goods Price Index

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico

    surprise
  • boe statement

    Delay to the November 2026 RTGS standards release

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Meeting of 22-23 July 2026

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Piero Cipollone: From vision to delivery: building Europe’s tokenised financial market

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Services Producer Price Index (July)

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on July 20 and July 29, 2026

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Indicators for Core CPI

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    Piero Cipollone: Interview with ilsussidiario.net

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Financial System Report Annex "Use and Risk Management of Generative AI by Japanese Financial Institutions"

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Bank of Japan Accounts (August 20)

    surprise
  • boj statement

    Statistics on Securities Financing Transactions in Japan

    surprise
  • ecb statement

    ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc

    surprise
  • fed statement

    Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc. and announces termination of enforcement action with Deutsche Bank AG, DB USA Corporation, and Deutsche Bank AG New Yor

    surprise
on record · not yet narrated

this day is on record. the events above were sourced and the regime read was computed from our own closes — that is the day's narrative, and it is true whether or not anything was written about it. the narration did not land on this run, so there is no thesis, no antithesis and no call here, and nothing was invented to fill the space.

what the run said it could not reach:

  • the read could not be rewritten: time budget exhausted after 22 s (last rung: text)
  • surprise σ is unavailable until our own calendar history exists
  • Fed and BOJ odds: no free source — only what the operator pastes, marked as a claim

nothing was written about what is coming — this day is on record and not yet narrated. these are the dated things the calendar reached, in the order they arrive.

  • forexfactoryreleaseUSD

    FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks

    no result yet