oil rips 5.1% to $91.48 as us diesel hits all-time high
Oil closed at $91.48, up 5.11% on the day and 6.17% on the month. US diesel prices hit an all-time high, tightening the pull on crude.
- the curve
- +0.40 pp 2s10s
- the dollar
- −1.7% 30d · −0.1% 90d
- rates
- 10y 4.79% · +9 bp 30d
- btc vs 200d
- $81,270 · +16.8% vs 200d
- gold
- $4,492 · +1.4% 30d
- oil
- $91.48 · +6.2% 30d
- japan 10y
- 2.966% · +12 bp 30d
- the front
- CPI in 7d · 2026-09-11
5/6 above trend · dollar falling · CPI in 7d · 10y 4.79%
conditions, computed from our own closes — never a forecast
what landed — 180 sourced events, with the numbers
- cnbc ↗news
The big business of personal protection: How private security became a $50 billion industry
surprise— - cnbc ↗news
Volkswagen jumps 8% on plans to cut 50,000 jobs amid tariffs, China competition
surprise— - cnbc ↗news
U.S. 'Economic Outcast’ operation gains momentum as EU joins sanctions; South Korea weighs military backing
surprise— - cnbc ↗news
World's biggest sovereign wealth fund plans to cut U.S. Treasury holdings
surprise— - cnbc ↗news
The wealth of the world's billionaires reached $15.1 trillion last year, per a new report
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Kalshi US visits soar 1,500% as regulatory pressure mounts
surprise— - cnbc ↗news
Why Nvidia's 'defensive move' to acquire Hugging Face is about much more than chips
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
We checked 6 years of bitcoin data. The NFP report isn't big price mover
surprise—
all 180 — 172 more
- cointelegraph ↗news
Trezor says data breach affects another 67K US customers
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Iran war: Why US midterms could be a pivotal moment
surprise— - cnbc ↗news
THC drinks could soon be harder to find as Congress delays hemp ban again
surprise— - bbc ↗news
US diesel prices hit an all-time-high
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
South Korean regulators introduce tokenized securities roadmap
surprise— - bbc ↗news
Stock up on food to prepare for extreme weather, minister warns
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Zcash jumps 20% to landmark $1,000 level as short sellers lose $34 million
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Reform UK officials step down as new funding scandal hits far-right party
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Argentina’s Milei threatens sanctions as he refocuses on Falklands
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
‘Build The Wall’: White House arcade games face backlash
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Bitcoin clears $81,000 as privacy coins lead a broad crypto rally
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
AMC chief criticizes Robinhood’s tokenized stock plan
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Meloni sets a record, leading Italy’s longest-serving government since WWII
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
IMF confirms El Salvador’s bitcoin growth was funded by private donations, not public money
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Israel takes its war on Palestine into the AI age
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
South Korea targets February 2027 rollout for full tokenized securities market
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Moment three-storey building collapses amid flooding in China
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Nepal search teams rescue two workers from hydropower tunnel
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Retail Sales m/m
forecast 0.3%previous -0.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactGBP
BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Why has the Philippine peso plunged to a record low?
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Construction PMI
forecast 45.8previous 44.7surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Retail Sales m/m
forecast 0.2%previous -0.1%surprise— - cnbc ↗news
Argentina's Milei escalates Falklands dispute as Trump questions U.S. support for Britain
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Video: Workers rescued from hydro tunnel nine days after Nepal flooding
surprise— - cnbc ↗news
Global bond sell-off likely not over yet, Mohamed El-Erian tells CNBC
surprise— - cointelegraph ↗news
Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $731M, highest since January as BTC reclaims $80K
surprise— - coindesk ↗news
Live updates: Bitcoin steady at $81,000 ahead of U.S. jobs data
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Why Pakistan overhauled its military command structure after five decades
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Zverev goes distance to scrape into third round as upsets rock US Open
surprise— - bbc ↗news
Prosecco, cakes and beauty products - how to get birthday freebies and why there's a catch
surprise— - cnbc ↗news
The inflation genie could be out of the bottle — and bond markets are sounding the alarm
surprise— - bbc ↗news
Volkswagen board approves plan to cut another 50,000 jobs
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
Nepal floods: How DNA identification of bodies works
surprise— - bbc ↗news
Argentine leader threatens to sanction oil firms and reiterates Falklands claim
surprise— - aljazeera ↗news
In southern Lebanon, Israeli demolitions continue ‘day and night’
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Factory Orders m/m
forecast 0.3%previous 3.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Household Spending y/y
forecast -1.6%previous -3.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
MPC Member Pill Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Natural Gas Storage
forecast 30Bprevious 15Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
ISM Services PMI
forecast 54.2previous 54.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Final Services PMI
forecast 56.8previous 56.8surprise— - bls ↗statement
Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCAD
Labor Productivity q/q
forecast 0.7%previous -0.5%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCAD
Trade Balance
forecast 3.2Bprevious 3.9Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
FOMC Member Waller Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q
forecast 1.4%previous 1.4%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q
forecast 1.3%previous 1.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Trade Balance
forecast -89.4Bprevious -73.3Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Unemployment Claims
forecast 205Kprevious 203Ksurprise— - fed ↗statement
Waller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Challenger Job Cuts y/y
previous -46.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
PPI m/m
forecast 1.2%previous -0.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
French 10-y Bond Auction
previous 3.86|3.7surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
previous 3.54|2.4surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Final Services PMI
forecast 52.8previous 52.8surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Final Services PMI
forecast 51.7previous 51.7surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Final Services PMI
forecast 48.5previous 48.5surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
French Final Services PMI
forecast 48.4previous 48.4surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Services PMI
forecast 53.6previous 52.5surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Spanish Services PMI
forecast 59.0previous 58.3surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
GDP q/q
forecast 1.7%previous 0.7%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
CPI m/m
forecast 0.0%previous -0.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
30-y Bond Auction
previous 3.94|3.9surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
RatingDog Services PMI
forecast 50.6previous 50.4surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Goods Trade Balance
forecast 1.52Bprevious 1.93Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
RBA Assist Gov Jones Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
previous -3.9%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
Overseas Trade Index q/q
forecast -2.1%previous -2.0%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
RBNZ Gov Breman Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Beige Book
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD
BOC Press Conference
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Crude Oil Inventories
forecast -0.4Mprevious 0.1Msurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Factory Orders m/m
forecast 0.7%previous -0.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD
BOC Rate Statement
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD
Overnight Rate
forecast 2.25%previous 2.25%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
forecast 47Kprevious 44Ksurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Spanish Unemployment Change
forecast 15.4Kprevious 19.5Ksurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
French Gov Budget Balance
previous -106.8Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD
RBNZ Press Conference
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD
Official Cash Rate
forecast 2.75%previous 2.50%surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactNZD
RBNZ Rate Statement
surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactAUD
GDP q/q
forecast 0.3%previous 0.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Monetary Base y/y
forecast -13.5%previous -13.8%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
Building Consents m/m
previous -3.6%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
GDT Price Index
previous 2.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAll
G20 Meetings
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Omdia Total Vehicle Sales
forecast 16.3Mprevious 16.3Msurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
forecast 46.2previous 45.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Construction Spending m/m
forecast 0.0%previous -0.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
ISM Manufacturing PMI
forecast 55.2previous 55.6surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
ISM Manufacturing Prices
forecast 70.5previous 71.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
JOLTS Job Openings
forecast 7.33Mprevious 7.36Msurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 53.3previous 53.2surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCAD
Manufacturing PMI
previous 53.5surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseUSD
FOMC Member Barr Speaks
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Barr, Unlocking Opportunities for Workers and Entrepreneurs with a Criminal Record
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Buba President Nagel Speaks
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
forecast 2.5%previous 2.5%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
forecast 3.3%previous 2.9%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
forecast 0.5%previous 0.2%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Unemployment Rate
forecast 6.3%previous 6.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
forecast 5.6%previous 5.7%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 51.5previous 51.5surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
M4 Money Supply m/m
forecast 0.9%previous 0.8%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Mortgage Approvals
forecast 59Kprevious 58Ksurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Net Lending to Individuals m/m
forecast 7.2Bprevious 9.5Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 52.8previous 52.8surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 54.1previous 54.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
French Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 51.5previous 51.5surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Italian Manufacturing PMI
forecast 51.4previous 51.3surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
Manufacturing PMI
forecast 54.1previous 53.2surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
Spanish Manufacturing PMI
forecast 50.3previous 50.2surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCHF
Retail Sales y/y
forecast 1.6%previous 1.5%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Commodity Prices y/y
previous 15.4%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Retail Sales m/m
forecast 0.4%previous -0.7%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Nationwide HPI m/m
forecast 0.1%previous 0.1%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Consumer Confidence
forecast 35.3previous 34.9surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
10-y Bond Auction
previous 2.84|2.6surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
forecast 51.0previous 50.9surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Building Approvals m/m
forecast -4.7%previous 7.2%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Current Account
forecast -29.7Bprevious -27.1Bsurprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Final Manufacturing PMI
forecast 55.1previous 55.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Capital Spending q/y
forecast -0.2%previous 0.0%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
BRC Shop Price Index y/y
forecast 0.9%previous 0.9%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAll
G20 Meetings
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseGBP
Bank Holiday
surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseEUR
German Prelim CPI m/m
forecast 0.3%previous 0.8%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Housing Starts y/y
forecast 7.5%previous 18.6%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Company Operating Profits q/q
forecast 2.0%previous -1.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
Private Sector Credit m/m
forecast 0.7%previous 0.8%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
Manufacturing PMI
forecast 49.5previous 49.2surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseCNY
Non-Manufacturing PMI
forecast 49.5previous 49.0surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAUD
MI Inflation Gauge m/m
previous 1.0%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseNZD
ANZ Business Confidence
previous 56.1surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Prelim Industrial Production m/m
forecast -0.7%previous 1.3%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseJPY
Retail Sales y/y
forecast 3.2%previous 0.5%surprise— - forexfactoryreleaseAll
G20 Meetings
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Warsh, In Our Time
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on July 20 and July 29, 2026
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by National Westminster Bank Plc
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with SouthPoint Bancshares, Inc. and announces termination of enforcement action with Deutsche Bank AG, DB USA Corporation, and Deutsche Bank AG New Yor
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement actions with former employee of Regions Bank and former employee of United Community Bank
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28–29, 2026
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Regions Bank
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Cook, Outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan Economies
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by Coastal Bend Bancshares, Inc.
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board requests comment on a proposal to modernize rules for mutual banking organizations
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with Iuka Bancshares, Inc. and The Iuka State Bank
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement actions with former employee of Regions Bank and former employee of First Interstate Bank
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Jefferson, Navigating Economic Shocks: A Monetary Policymaker’s Perspective
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Agencies issue joint statement on handling of highly sensitive information during bank examinations
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former chief lending officer of Heritage State Bank
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Cook, Economic Outlook
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Bowman, Responsible Innovation and Financial Inclusion
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Barr, Will Artificial Intelligence Broadly Raise Living Standards or Drive Income and Wealth Inequality?
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Warsh, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Waller, Monetary Policy at a Crossroads
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Bowman, Modernizing Financial Regulation
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve announces the leadership and objectives of its task forces to advance the conduct of monetary policy
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with TS Banking Group, Inc. and TS Contrarian Bancshares, Inc.
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Bowman, Opening Remarks on Sound Practices for Artificial Intelligence
surprise— - fed ↗statement
Waller, Two Thoughts on the Transmission of Monetary Policy
surprise—
A daily close above $90 while diesel prints a record high is the kind of signal that has preceded further gains. Each time oil broke above its one-year high [AN1], the following month extended the move. Diesel at an all-time high means global distillate demand is running hot, forcing refiners to pull more crude. When the pull is this strong, crude hasn't stopped at the round number.
the 1 event this stands on
US diesel prices hit an all-time-high
The 5.11% spike came in a single session, and the NFP report in less than an hour could flip it. When crude rallies more than 5% in a day [AN2], the median one-week return is negative. Petroleum markets fade one-day blowoffs ahead of key macro data. The diesel headline is real, but the speed of the move says sellers are already lining up.
the 1 event this stands on
- forexfactory
Non-Farm Employment Change
The 19 times oil broke its one-year high [AN1], 10 of 19 were up a month later — too thin to lean on. The 31 times oil rallied 5% in a day [AN2], the median week was +2.9%, not negative, so the fade argument got no support. What held was the diesel record [bbc:2026-09-04:us-diesel-prices-hit-an-all-time-high], a tightening physical pull that neither historical pattern resolved.
Each time oil broke above its one-year high [AN1], the following month extended the move.
19 times in our own history; 10 of them went that way, median +3.0% a month later — too few to say either way.
the chart, the windows and the machine spec
| window | n | hits | hit rate | median | 90% ci |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 19 | 11 | 58% | +1.51% | 39–74% |
| 1m | 19 | 10 | 53% | +3.02% | 35–70% |
fired on · 2016-10-19 · 2016-12-02 · 2017-02-21 · 2017-11-02 · 2017-12-26 · 2018-01-26 · 2018-04-11 · 2018-05-09 · 2018-06-26 · 2021-02-02 · 2021-03-04 · 2021-05-17 · 2021-06-15 · 2021-09-27 · 2022-01-19 · 2022-02-28 · 2023-09-27 · 2026-03-05 · 2026-04-02
{
"id": "AN1",
"level": null,
"since": null,
"years": 1,
"series": "oil",
"condition": "crosses_above_n_year_high",
"window_days": null,
"threshold_pct": null,
"compare_series": "oil",
"lookback_since": "2016-01-01",
"spread_against": null,
"forward_windows": [
"1w",
"1m"
]
}When crude rallies more than 5% in a day [AN2], the median one-week return is negative.
30 times in our own history; 12 of them went that way, median +2.3% a month later — too few to say either way.
the chart, the windows and the machine spec
| window | n | hits | hit rate | median | 90% ci |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 31 | 21 | 68% | +2.87% | 53–79% |
| 1m | 30 | 18 | 60% | +2.27% | 45–73% |
fired on · 2016-01-21 · 2016-02-22 · 2016-04-06 · 2016-09-28 · 2016-11-15 · 2018-06-22 · 2019-01-09 · 2019-06-20 · 2019-09-16 · 2020-03-10 · 2020-04-08 · 2020-05-12 · 2020-10-05 · 2020-11-09 · 2021-03-24 · 2021-08-23 · 2022-03-01 · 2022-04-12 · 2022-05-11 · 2022-10-03 · 2022-11-04 · 2023-03-27 · 2023-10-13 · 2024-10-03 · 2025-06-13 · 2025-10-23 · 2026-03-02 · 2026-04-02 · 2026-06-01 · 2026-07-13 · 2026-08-10
{
"id": "AN2",
"level": null,
"since": null,
"years": null,
"series": "oil",
"condition": "rolling_return_above",
"window_days": 1,
"threshold_pct": 5,
"compare_series": "oil",
"lookback_since": "2016-01-01",
"spread_against": null,
"forward_windows": [
"1w",
"1m"
]
}Fed and BOJ odds: no free source — only what the operator pastes, marked as a claim
At $91.48, the machine's call on oil is up over the next month. Diesel at an all-time high is pulling crude hard, and neither historical check gave a reason to fade that.
never a position, never advice — a lean with a probability, resolved on its date
the ladder this entry laid — 32 calls, each with its own date
- spx1dupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- spx1wupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- spx1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- nasdaq1dupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- nasdaq1wupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- nasdaq1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- btc1dupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- btc1wupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- btc1mupp .65pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- dxy1dupp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- dxy1wflatp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- dxy1mdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- us10y1dflatp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- us10y1wupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- us10y1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- gold1dupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- gold1wupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- gold1mupp .65pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- oil1dupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- oil1wupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- oil1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- eth1dupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- eth1wflatp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- eth1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- eurusd1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- eurusd1wflatp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- eurusd1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- jpy1ddownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-06
- jpy1wdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
- jpy1mupp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-04
- oilclaimupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-30
Oil will close September above $91.48.
- oilclaimupp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-30
Bitcoin will hold above $81,270 through September.
Non-farm payrolls land at 12:30 UTC. A daily close that reverses today's 5.11% gain would cast doubt on the breakout.
- forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD
Employment Change
forecast 15.1Kprevious 75.1Kno result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD
Unemployment Rate
forecast 6.4%previous 6.4%no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
forecast 0.3%previous 0.1%no result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
Non-Farm Employment Change
forecast 55Kprevious -23Kno result yet - forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD
Unemployment Rate
forecast 4.1%previous 4.1%no result yet - forexfactoryreleaseCAD
Ivey PMI
forecast 56.2previous 55.1no result yet