PAKUP·AI
2026-09-0401the open

oil surges 5.1% to $91.48 as us rules out iran talks

Oil closed at $91.48, up 5.11% on the day and 6.17% on the month. The move came as the US ruled out negotiations with Iran until ship attacks stop, and a controversial Venezuela oil deal fanned supply anxiety.

the curve
+0.40 pp 2s10s
the dollar
−1.7% 30d · −0.1% 90d
rates
10y 4.79% · +9 bp 30d
btc vs 200d
$81,270 · +16.8% vs 200d
gold
$4,366 · −1.5% 30d
oil
$91.48 · +6.2% 30d
japan 10y
2.966% · +12 bp 30d
the front
CPI in 7d · 2026-09-11

5/6 above trend · dollar falling · CPI in 7d · 10y 4.79%

conditions, computed from our own closes — never a forecast

what landed — 176 sourced events, with the numbers
  • operator pastepaste-claim

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    Final Services PMI

    forecast 56.8previous 56.8surprise
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    forecast 1.4%previous 1.4%surprise
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    Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q

    forecast 1.3%previous 1.3%surprise
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    previous 3.86|3.7surprise
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    previous 3.54|2.4surprise
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    forecast 52.8previous 52.8surprise
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    Final Services PMI

    forecast 51.7previous 51.7surprise
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    German Final Services PMI

    forecast 48.5previous 48.5surprise
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    French Final Services PMI

    forecast 48.4previous 48.4surprise
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    Italian Services PMI

    forecast 53.6previous 52.5surprise
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    Spanish Services PMI

    forecast 59.0previous 58.3surprise
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    Factory Orders m/m

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    Overnight Rate

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    forecast 15.4Kprevious 19.5Ksurprise
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    previous -106.8Bsurprise
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    Official Cash Rate

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    RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

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    RBNZ Rate Statement

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    GDP q/q

    forecast 0.3%previous 0.3%surprise
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    Monetary Base y/y

    forecast -13.5%previous -13.8%surprise
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    Building Consents m/m

    previous -3.6%surprise
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    previous 2.3%surprise
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    forecast 46.2previous 45.1surprise
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    Construction Spending m/m

    forecast 0.0%previous -0.1%surprise
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    ISM Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 55.2previous 55.6surprise
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    ISM Manufacturing Prices

    forecast 70.5previous 71.1surprise
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    JOLTS Job Openings

    forecast 7.33Mprevious 7.36Msurprise
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    Manufacturing PMI

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    CPI Flash Estimate y/y

    forecast 3.3%previous 2.9%surprise
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    Italian Prelim CPI m/m

    forecast 0.5%previous 0.2%surprise
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    Unemployment Rate

    forecast 6.3%previous 6.3%surprise
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    Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate

    forecast 5.6%previous 5.7%surprise
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    Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 51.5previous 51.5surprise
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    M4 Money Supply m/m

    forecast 0.9%previous 0.8%surprise
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    Mortgage Approvals

    forecast 59Kprevious 58Ksurprise
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    Net Lending to Individuals m/m

    forecast 7.2Bprevious 9.5Bsurprise
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    Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 52.8previous 52.8surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 54.1previous 54.1surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    French Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 51.5previous 51.5surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 51.4previous 51.3surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 54.1previous 53.2surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Spanish Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 50.3previous 50.2surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCHF

    Retail Sales y/y

    forecast 1.6%previous 1.5%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    Commodity Prices y/y

    previous 15.4%surprise
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    German Retail Sales m/m

    forecast 0.4%previous -0.7%surprise
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    Nationwide HPI m/m

    forecast 0.1%previous 0.1%surprise
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    Consumer Confidence

    forecast 35.3previous 34.9surprise
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    10-y Bond Auction

    previous 2.84|2.6surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    RatingDog Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 51.0previous 50.9surprise
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    Building Approvals m/m

    forecast -4.7%previous 7.2%surprise
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    Current Account

    forecast -29.7Bprevious -27.1Bsurprise
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    Final Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 55.1previous 55.1surprise
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    Capital Spending q/y

    forecast -0.2%previous 0.0%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    BRC Shop Price Index y/y

    forecast 0.9%previous 0.9%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAll

    G20 Meetings

    surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Bank Holiday

    surprise
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    German Prelim CPI m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous 0.8%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Housing Starts y/y

    forecast 7.5%previous 18.6%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    Company Operating Profits q/q

    forecast 2.0%previous -1.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    Private Sector Credit m/m

    forecast 0.7%previous 0.8%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 49.5previous 49.2surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseCNY

    Non-Manufacturing PMI

    forecast 49.5previous 49.0surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseAUD

    MI Inflation Gauge m/m

    previous 1.0%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseNZD

    ANZ Business Confidence

    previous 56.1surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Prelim Industrial Production m/m

    forecast -0.7%previous 1.3%surprise
  • forexfactoryreleaseJPY

    Retail Sales y/y

    forecast 3.2%previous 0.5%surprise
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    G20 Meetings

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Oil’s close at $91.48 pushed it back above $90 on a closing basis. Each time oil has crossed above $90 [AN1], the month ahead is the thing to measure. The US refusal to talk as long as ships are attacked means Hormuz risk is being priced in real time. A Venezuela deal stoking ‘new colonialism’ accusations piles on supply uncertainty.

the 2 events this stands on
  • aljazeera

    Iran war live: US rules out Iran talks until ship attacks stop

  • aljazeera

    Why are people calling Venezuela oil deal a new form of US colonialism?

A 5.1% daily gain is a one-session spike. Every time oil has rallied more than 5% in a single session [AN2], the following week is the thing to measure. The rally landed in one candle without confirmation — the S&P added only 1.06% and the dollar firmed. JD Vance declined to offer a timeline for ending the Iran war, and a war without an expiry leaves the supply panic priced all at once.

the 1 event this stands on
  • aljazeera

    US Vice President JD Vance declines to offer timeline for end of Iran war

Oil closing above $90 [AN1] occurred eight times in our own history; only three of those months closed higher and the median month fell 2.6%. There were 30 instances where oil rallied more than 5% in a single session [AN2]; 18 were higher a month later, but the claim that spikes reverse accounted for just 40% of those outcomes. Both comparisons are too thin to lean on — neither the thesis that $90 breakouts extend gains nor the antithesis that 5% spikes reverse is supported. The machine's call therefore rests on the current supply shock: the US ruling out Iran talks while ship attacks persist, and the Venezuela deal adding producer uncertainty.

AN1thinfired on 9 dates

Each time oil has crossed above $90 [AN1], the month ahead is the thing to measure.

too thin to settle

8 times in our own history; 3 of them went that way, median -2.6% a month later — too few to say either way.

the chart, the windows and the machine spec
oilN = 8
windownhitshit ratemedian90% ci
1w8338%−0.50%17–66%
1m8338%−2.61%17–66%

fired on · 2022-02-03 · 2022-08-17 · 2022-10-07 · 2022-11-04 · 2023-09-14 · 2026-03-06 · 2026-04-20 · 2026-07-23 · 2026-09-01

{
  "id": "AN1",
  "level": 90,
  "since": null,
  "years": null,
  "series": "oil",
  "condition": "crosses_above_level",
  "window_days": null,
  "threshold_pct": null,
  "compare_series": "oil",
  "lookback_since": "2016-01-01",
  "spread_against": null,
  "forward_windows": [
    "1w",
    "1m"
  ]
}
AN2thinfired on 31 dates

Every time oil has rallied more than 5% in a single session [AN2], the following week is the thing to measure.

too thin to settle

30 times in our own history; 12 of them went that way, median +2.3% a month later — too few to say either way.

the chart, the windows and the machine spec
oilN = 31
windownhitshit ratemedian90% ci
1w312168%+2.87%53–79%
1m301860%+2.27%45–73%

fired on · 2016-01-21 · 2016-02-22 · 2016-04-06 · 2016-09-28 · 2016-11-15 · 2018-06-22 · 2019-01-09 · 2019-06-20 · 2019-09-16 · 2020-03-10 · 2020-04-08 · 2020-05-12 · 2020-10-05 · 2020-11-09 · 2021-03-24 · 2021-08-23 · 2022-03-01 · 2022-04-12 · 2022-05-11 · 2022-10-03 · 2022-11-04 · 2023-03-27 · 2023-10-13 · 2024-10-03 · 2025-06-13 · 2025-10-23 · 2026-03-02 · 2026-04-02 · 2026-06-01 · 2026-07-13 · 2026-08-10

{
  "id": "AN2",
  "level": null,
  "since": null,
  "years": null,
  "series": "oil",
  "condition": "rolling_return_above",
  "window_days": 1,
  "threshold_pct": 5,
  "compare_series": "oil",
  "lookback_since": "2016-01-01",
  "spread_against": null,
  "forward_windows": [
    "1w",
    "1m"
  ]
}

Fed and BOJ odds: no free source — only what the operator pastes, marked as a claim

At $91.48, the machine's call on oil is up over the next month. The supply impulse from the Hormuz threat and the Venezuela controversy overrides the thin historical samples.

the machine's call · oil up · p .65

never a position, never advice — a lean with a probability, resolved on its date

the ladder this entry laid — 22 calls, each with its own date
  • spx1dupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-06
  • spx1wupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • spx1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-04
  • nasdaq1dupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-06
  • nasdaq1wupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • nasdaq1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-04
  • btc1dupp .75pendingresolves 2026-09-06
  • btc1wupp .75pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • btc1mupp .75pendingresolves 2026-10-04
  • dxy1dflatp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-06
  • dxy1wdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • dxy1mdownp .55pendingresolves 2026-10-04
  • us10y1dupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-06
  • us10y1wupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • us10y1mupp .60pendingresolves 2026-10-04
  • gold1ddownp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-06
  • gold1wdownp .65pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • gold1mdownp .65pendingresolves 2026-10-04
  • oil1dupp .70pendingresolves 2026-09-06
  • oil1wupp .70pendingresolves 2026-09-11
  • oil1mupp .70pendingresolves 2026-10-04
  • oilclaimupp .60pendingresolves 2026-09-18

    Oil closes above $91.48 by September 18.

US non-farm payrolls print at 8:30 ET — a strong number would lift the dollar and test the oil breakout. Bailey speaks at 4:50 ET, and Canadian employment data lands alongside. A close back below $90 turns the whole thing over.

  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    German Factory Orders m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous 3.1%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Italian Retail Sales m/m

    forecast 0.2%previous -0.1%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseGBP

    Construction PMI

    forecast 45.8previous 44.7no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactGBP

    BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

    no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseEUR

    Retail Sales m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous -0.3%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD

    Employment Change

    forecast 15.1Kprevious 75.1Kno result yet
all 115 more
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactCAD

    Unemployment Rate

    forecast 6.4%previous 6.4%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Average Hourly Earnings m/m

    forecast 0.3%previous 0.1%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Non-Farm Employment Change

    forecast 55Kprevious -23Kno result yet
  • forexfactoryreleasehigh impactUSD

    Unemployment Rate

    forecast 4.1%previous 4.1%no result yet
  • forexfactoryreleaseCAD

    Ivey PMI

    forecast 56.2previous 55.1no result yet