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how the read evolved · 3 versions · 2026-08-072026-08-20
REPORT · EURUSD v3
PAKUP·AI
LIVING REPORT · REPORT NO. 3
v3 · 2026-08-20
CURRENT

EUR/USD 1.17 +0.85%

fx · data as of 2026-08-20 · computed, sourced, never predicted
live intraday view · chart by TradingView · the document below is computed from end-of-day data
00Executive summary

EUR/USD closed at 1.17 (+0.85% on the day). Over the last month it is +2.28%, over the last year +0.26%. It sits 2.82% below the 52-week high of 1.2 (52-week low 1.14).

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

latest change — 1.16 → 1.17 (+0.86% since v2)2 invalidation conditions stated — section 07
01What changed — v3 vs v2
  • · 1.16 → 1.17 (+0.86% since v2)
  • · crossed ABOVE the 200-day average (1.16)
  • · volatility regime quiet → normal (26th pct)
  • · market trend vote mixed → both-above
02Technicals

EUR/USD closed at 1.17 (+0.85% on the day). Over the last month it is +2.28%, over the last year +0.26%. It sits 2.82% below the 52-week high of 1.2 (52-week low 1.14).

Trend: price is ABOVE the 200-day average (1.16) and above the 50-day (1.15) — trend strength (R², 90d) 0.53, direction sideways.

Volatility: 30-day realized vol is 4.61% annualized, the 26th percentile of this asset's own history — a normal tape. Short-horizon behavior leans no clear_bias.

Structure (90 days): range 1.14 – 1.18; the most-touched level is 1.14 (46 touches).

1W
+1.16%
1M
+2.28%
1Y
+0.26%
FROM 52W HIGH
-2.82%
03Risk

Risk: the deepest drawdown of the last year was 5.52% (2026-01-28 → 2026-06-24); price now sits 2.82% below the trailing-year peak. Worst single session: -0.97% (2026-02-02).

MAX DD 1Y
-5.52%
FROM 1Y PEAK
-2.82%
BEST DAY
+1.26%
WORST DAY
-0.97%
04Sentiment

The tape leans neutral: 48% of the last 90 sessions closed up, direction sideways, short-horizon behavior no clear bias.

Positioning: 0.9 standard deviations above the 90-day mean, 2.82% from the all-time high of this series.

computed from price action, not from opinions or positioning surveys

05Consensus read

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

The 1-month move (+2.28%) agrees with the 1-year trend (+0.26%).

Trading within 2.82% of the 52-week high — priced near its best.

analyst-rating feeds are licensed; this section reads the market's own positioning instead

06In the air — headlines, not causes
07What would change this read
  • · The trend read flips on a daily close below the 200-day average at 1.16.
  • · The volatility read changes if realized vol leaves its current regime (now the 26th percentile).
  • · nothing here is a prediction or advice — it is a computed description of end-of-day data
1.17+0.85%CONSTRUCTIVE